Small Craft Advisory 158, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST FRI FEB 18 2005

.DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TO
RETROGRADE AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC INTO THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TWO LOWS FORM INTO ONE
LARGE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA BY SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW TODAY TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA SATURDAY
AND EXIT THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THESE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO
THE MEAN RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE INTERIOR TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
ALONG 140W. THE STRONG WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT
TO HELP SWING THE BERING SEA LOW EAST AND NUDGE THE MEAN RIDGE EAST A
BIT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION INTO MID NEXT WEEK AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE.

A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WITH
STRONG WINDS...HIGH SEAS...AND MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST. THE WINDS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST. A FRONT IS WORKING NORTH IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA INCREASING WINDS THERE AS WELL. PRECIP WILL MOSTLY
BE LIMITED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL EXCEPT UPSLOPE ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE. ENOUGH UPSLOPE ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE FOR ADVISORY
TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW HELPED BY A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...PRECIP TO REACH INLAND LOCATIONS. INLAND
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGH
TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY EXCESSIVE PRECIP THERE.

ANOTHER LOW IN THE NORTHER PACIFIC TO REPLACE THE CURRENT LOW. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS ROUGHLY IN THE SAME CHARACTER AS THE CURRENT
LOW. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT THE HIGH WIND SCENARIO WE SAW LAST NIGHT
INTO TODAY TO BEGIN IN THE SAME AREAS STARTING TOMORROW MORNING.
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO WORK BEHIND THE LOW IN THE
WESTERN BERING SEA. A FRONT WILL WORK NORTH IN THE WESTERN GULF
TOMORROW EVENING AND IS PUSHED ALONG BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIP ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
LOCALES UNTIL THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA AGAIN.

THE LOW WILL SWING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK TO JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONGER FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY WITH SOME HEAVIER PRECIP TO REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WORK INLAND TUESDAY. BY THIS
TIME...MUCH OF THE BERING SEA WILL BE IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. COLD AIR ADVECTION...HOWEVER...WILL BE
LIMITED MAINLY WEST OF 175W.

THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS...TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST PLACES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 161
         HIGH WIND WATCH ZONE 181
MARINE...STORM 5B 6A 6B 8 12A 14
         GALE 5A 12A1 12B 13A 13B 15
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 05