Gale Warning 254, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 201305
CWFAER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST SUN FEB 20 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-210300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE N GULF COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TODAY. A 998 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT JUST OFF KODIAK THEN WILL
DISSIPATE OVER COOK INLET MON. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY TUE MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-210300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST SUN FEB 20 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-210300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST SUN FEB 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. SNOW RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW RAIN AND FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-210300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST SUN FEB 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SNOW AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SNOW AND FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SNOW AND FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-210300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST SUN FEB 20 2005

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT OR LESS. RAIN SNOW AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SNOW AND FOG. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-210300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST SUN FEB 20 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SNOW AND FOG. FREEZING SPRAY
NEAR AUGUSTINE THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
$$

PKZ132-210300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST SUN FEB 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-210300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST SUN FEB 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-210300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST SUN FEB 20 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. STRONGEST WIND SW OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS ICE
FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-210300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST SUN FEB 20 2005

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM AST SAT FEB 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA BY TOMORROW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
BERING SEA. HOWEVER...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS IN THE BERING SEA
AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN ADDITION...COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW WILL BRING SOME MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE LOW WILL FILL IN THE BERING SEA TOMORROW AS
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS SURFACE LOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IT WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE DIFFERENT MODELS TEND TO DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND LOW. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE
UKMET AND NAM. RIGHT NOW...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE GFS. THE
RESULTANT WOULD BE FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO SHOW DIFFERING PATTERNS.
THE NAM AND UKMET MOVE A FRONT/SURFACE LOW NORTH FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THE DIFFERENCE IS MONDAY EVENING VERSUS TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FRONT
WORKING INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THEREFORE...WIND FORECASTS IN THESE AREAS MAY BE A BIT UNCERTAIN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS UNTIL THE MODELS TEND TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.

PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION TO WORK NORTH AND EAST WITH THE LOW TONIGHT
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALONG THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST. WINDS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING
AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL BE MODERATE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT WITH THE LOW WORKS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS
FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA MONDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT WORKS
NORTH INTO THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WORKS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS STRONG FRONT.

MODELS AGREE A BIT BETTER BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN LOW MOVING INTO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY INTO BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. BY THIS TIME...A LOW MOVES NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH
A FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 181
MARINE...STORM 5B 6A 6B 8 12A 12A1 13B 14
         GALE 5A 12B 13A 15
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 05