Small Craft Advisory 156, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...ACTION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW REVOLVES A LARGE
DEEPENING LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
BERING SEA NORTH OF ADAK TOMORROW NIGHT AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY
ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK SATURDAY.
    QUICKSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING RESOLVED WINDS
AROUND THE LOW AT 50 KT ON THE NORTH SIDE AND OVER 60 KT AROUND THE
SOUTHERN SIDE.
    ETA AND GFS MODELS HAVE GOOD POSITION ON THIS LOW BUT ARE FAR TOO
WEAK AS TO ITS STRENGTH. UKMET SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST LOCK ON THIS
LOWS POSITION AND STRENGTH.
    BIG QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET AS THIS
LOW MOVES OVER DUTCH HARBOR TONIGHT AND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...ZONE 181 SEEMS PRUDENT AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS ARE
LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A TOUGHER CALL FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...ZONE 185. CENTER HEADED RIGHT FOR DUTCH HARBOR. WRAPPED
AROUND PORTION OF OCCLUDED FRONT MAY CONTAIN HIGH WINDS THAT WILL BE
BOTH ENHANCED AND BLOCKED BY THE TERRAIN OF THE ISLANDS. STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY WILL BE ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 181 185.
MARINE...GALE 2B 3A 3B 8 12B 14 15.
         STORM 3C 5A 5B 6A 6B 12A 12A1.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ FEB 05