Gale Warning 251, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 181259
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI FEB 18 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GULF AND ONSHORE NEAR CORDOVA FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-190300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST FRI FEB 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E WIND 30 KT AFTER NOON. 
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-190300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST FRI FEB 18 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 5 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS INCREASING TO S 15 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-190300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST FRI FEB 18 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-190300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST FRI FEB 18 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 5 KT OR LESS INCREASING TO E 15 KT 
AFTER NOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-190300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST FRI FEB 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. NE WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NORTHEAST OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-190300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST FRI FEB 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-190300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST FRI FEB 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT
AFTER NOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ140-190300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST FRI FEB 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE
WATERS. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT. 
SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 

$$

PKZ141-190300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST FRI FEB 18 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO E 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST THU FEB 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...ACTION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW REVOLVES A LARGE
DEEPENING LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
BERING SEA NORTH OF ADAK TOMORROW NIGHT AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY
ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK SATURDAY.
    QUICKSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING RESOLVED WINDS
AROUND THE LOW AT 50 KT ON THE NORTH SIDE AND OVER 60 KT AROUND THE
SOUTHERN SIDE.
    ETA AND GFS MODELS HAVE GOOD POSITION ON THIS LOW BUT ARE FAR TOO
WEAK AS TO ITS STRENGTH. UKMET SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST LOCK ON THIS
LOWS POSITION AND STRENGTH.
    BIG QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET AS THIS
LOW MOVES OVER DUTCH HARBOR TONIGHT AND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...ZONE 181 SEEMS PRUDENT AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS ARE
LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A TOUGHER CALL FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...ZONE 185. CENTER HEADED RIGHT FOR DUTCH HARBOR. WRAPPED
AROUND PORTION OF OCCLUDED FRONT MAY CONTAIN HIGH WINDS THAT WILL BE
BOTH ENHANCED AND BLOCKED BY THE TERRAIN OF THE ISLANDS. STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY WILL BE ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 181 185.
MARINE...GALE 2B 3A 3B 8 12B 14 15.
         STORM 3C 5A 5B 6A 6B 12A 12A1.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ FEB 05