Small Craft Advisory 146, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST MON FEB 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVELS...MAIN ANCHORING LOW FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE REMAINS
OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA WITH RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA. THIS PATTERN LOOKS
TO HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE REX BLOCK SET UP JUST OF THE WEST
COAST OF THE CONUS. A NORTH-SOUTH JET MAX IS SETTING UP WITH A 120 KT
CORE ALONG THE 150TH MERIDIAN THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
EASTWARD IN THE FLOW. BY 48 HOURS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE AT ALL LEVELS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE EAST.

SURFACE...A STRONG LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES. GRADIENT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL REACH ITS PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
RELAX THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN.

MODELS...THE NAM AND GFS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE AT THE 18Z PANEL ON THE
SURFACE SITUATION WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUN. FROM THERE NO MAJOR
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE FIRST 84 HOURS. WILL
SIDE WITH A STANDARD GFS IN THE AND NAM IN THE EAST FOR THE FORECAST
TODAY. LOTS OF PROBLEM AREAS ACROSS THE AOR TO LOOK AT THIS
AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AFTER TODAYS SYSTEM MOVES OUT THIS EVENING RIDGING
BUILDS IN. THE PROBLEM WILL THE THE MOVEMENT OF ANY FRONTS INTO THE
REGION AND HOW FAR THEY MOVE INLAND...AND HOW MUCH DOES THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS UPPER
LEVEL SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE DIFFERENT
FRONTS FOR ANY SNOW IN THE VALLEY...AND WIND EVENTS FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALASKA PENINSULA...LATE TUESDAY BRINGS THE NEXT WIND EVENT FOR THE
PENINSULA AREA LOOKS TO KEEP BELOW WARNING LEVELS AT THIS TIME. WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING THIS AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW KEEPING SHOWERS AND WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ALEUTIAN CHAIN...MAJOR UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONG SURFACE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL MOVE UP ON THE CHAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL FLY A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE DUTCH AREA DURING
THIS TIME AND ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE PRIBS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...101
         HIGH WIND WATCH...185
         HEAVY SNOW WARNING...141 145
MARINE...GALE...2B 2C 3B 4 6A 6B 12A 12B 13A
         STORM...3A 3C 5A 5B
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...14
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

PROTON FEB 05