Small Craft Advisory 140, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1130 PM AST SAT FEB 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - THE MAJOR UPPER LOW COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA HAS AN
UPPER RIDGE ALONG 160W OR SO AHEAD OF IT AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THE OLD
UPPER LOW HAS KICKED OUT OVER YAKUTAT. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS 960 MB
OFF SHEMYA WITH A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING UP TO THE SW COAST.
THERE ARE LOTS OF COLD TOP CUMULUS OVER THE BERING TODAY AND 500 MB
TEMPS IN THIS SYSTEM ARE -40C AS PER THE 12Z PASN RAOB. THERE ARE
LOTS OF WAVES ON THE FRONT WITH GOOD NOTCH ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR
42N 171W AT 20Z. AGAIN THERE IS A VERY STRONG JET AT 250 MB FROM
SOUTHERN JAPAN TO A SPLIT ALONG 175W WITH A SW BRANCH AIMED AT THE
GULF.

AER FORECASTS - WE ARE WIRED INTO THE GFS-190 THIS MORNING WITH THE
IDEA THAT A SERIES OF LOWS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY AREA ON SUN AND MON. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CELL MOVES E LOOK FOR
PRESSURE GRADIENTS FORM THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE INTERIOR TO
INCREASE WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MINOR CHINOOK FOR ANCHORAGE LATER ON
SUN AND A STRONGER ONE ON MON WITH GENERAL WARMING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. A MELT DOWN IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE ROAD SYSTEM ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 35F TO 40F RANGE.

ALU FORECASTS - SHOWERS ARE THE OPERATIONAL WORD FOR THE BERING SEA
AS CAN BE SEEN FROM A GLANCE AT THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FRONT
SEEMS TO BE LOSING ITS PUNCH AS IT MOVES ONTO THE COAST. BY MON
MORNING THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA AS PER
ALL THE MODELS PROBABLY AROUND 980 MB. ALL HEMISPHERIC MODELS
FORECAST ANOTHER STORM DEVELOPING S OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE
AFTERNOON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND ADVSRY 101 125 131 135 181. WINTER WX ADVSRY 155 161.
MARINE...GALES ALMOST EVERYWHERE.
         HVY FRZ SPRAY 121 125 129 130 140 160 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC FEB 05