Storm Warning 60, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 131555 AAA
CWFAER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
700 AM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

UPDATED ALL MARINE AREAS

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-140300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1012 MB LOW 59N 143W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  A DEVELOPING 992 MB LOW 44N 171W WILL INTENSIFY
AND MOVE ONSHORE NEAR 59N 160W MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL ENTER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-140300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
700 AM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-140300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
700 AM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE MOSTLY N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-140300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
700 AM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-140300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
700 AM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND TO 10 MPH BECOMING E WIND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-140300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
700 AM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NE 40 KT NEAR AUGUSTINE IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. NE GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR AUGUSTINE. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-140300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
700 AM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-140300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
700 AM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-140300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
700 AM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. E GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. E GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E GUSTS TO 65
KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-140300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
700 AM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 140010
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY THROUGH MON NIGHT 
WILL DRIVE A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH OVER THE GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS.

$$

PKZ120-141500-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO
15 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-141500-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-141500-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-141500-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-141500-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...
   NORTHWEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55
KT. WIND DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
   SOUTHEAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SE
25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING S 35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-141500-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-141500-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...WIND BECOMING SE 40 KT DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...WIND BECOMING SW AND DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-141500-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGER
GUSTS 50 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 70 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-141500-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS BUILDING TO 7
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1130 PM AST SAT FEB 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - THE MAJOR UPPER LOW COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA HAS AN
UPPER RIDGE ALONG 160W OR SO AHEAD OF IT AT 12Z THIS MORNING. THE OLD
UPPER LOW HAS KICKED OUT OVER YAKUTAT. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS 960 MB
OFF SHEMYA WITH A WARM OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING UP TO THE SW COAST.
THERE ARE LOTS OF COLD TOP CUMULUS OVER THE BERING TODAY AND 500 MB
TEMPS IN THIS SYSTEM ARE -40C AS PER THE 12Z PASN RAOB. THERE ARE
LOTS OF WAVES ON THE FRONT WITH GOOD NOTCH ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR
42N 171W AT 20Z. AGAIN THERE IS A VERY STRONG JET AT 250 MB FROM
SOUTHERN JAPAN TO A SPLIT ALONG 175W WITH A SW BRANCH AIMED AT THE
GULF.

AER FORECASTS - WE ARE WIRED INTO THE GFS-190 THIS MORNING WITH THE
IDEA THAT A SERIES OF LOWS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY AREA ON SUN AND MON. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CELL MOVES E LOOK FOR
PRESSURE GRADIENTS FORM THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE INTERIOR TO
INCREASE WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MINOR CHINOOK FOR ANCHORAGE LATER ON
SUN AND A STRONGER ONE ON MON WITH GENERAL WARMING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. A MELT DOWN IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE ROAD SYSTEM ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 35F TO 40F RANGE.

ALU FORECASTS - SHOWERS ARE THE OPERATIONAL WORD FOR THE BERING SEA
AS CAN BE SEEN FROM A GLANCE AT THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FRONT
SEEMS TO BE LOSING ITS PUNCH AS IT MOVES ONTO THE COAST. BY MON
MORNING THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA AS PER
ALL THE MODELS PROBABLY AROUND 980 MB. ALL HEMISPHERIC MODELS
FORECAST ANOTHER STORM DEVELOPING S OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE
AFTERNOON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND ADVSRY 101 125 131 135 181. WINTER WX ADVSRY 155 161.
MARINE...GALES ALMOST EVERYWHERE.
         HVY FRZ SPRAY 121 125 129 130 140 160 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC FEB 05