Small Craft Advisory 112, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST THU FEB 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS ALASKA THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
BERING AND A CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA. AT THE SURFACE...THE
ARCTIC FRONT LIES ESSENTIALLY SOUTH OF ALL EXCEPT THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST PERSISTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA IS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. EXTREMELY COLD AND DRY AIR COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WENT WITH THE GFS IN THE WEST AND THE
MESOETA FOR DETAIL IN THE EAST.

IN THE WEST...THE FRONT ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CHAIN AND THE BERING BEFORE DISSIPATING FRI NIGHT NEAR
BRISTOL BAY. IT WILL BE UNABLE TO MAKE FURTHER PROGRESS AGAINST THE
RIDGE. A SECOND LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A 175 KT JET AT 32N 167E THU
NIGHT WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS. IT
WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINNING FRI
NIGHT AND CROSS JUST WEST OF ADAK SAT AFTERNOON. STORMS AND GALES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MAY
BRING
SOME SNOW TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATER ON SATURDAY.

IN THE EAST...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST.
THE NORTHERN GULF TROUGH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA UNTIL
THE BERING FRONT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SNOW ACROSS KODIAK
AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LATE SAT NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...

IN THE WEST...THE BERING LOW SPINS ITSELF INTO OBLIVION BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS KEEPS COLD AIR OVER
MOST OF THE BERING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

IN THE EAST...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO
PERSIST AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA NEAT WEEK...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS
IN FAVORED MOUNTAINOUS UPSLOPE AREAS. A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING THROUGH
THE GENERAL FLOW MAY PROVIDE SOME BRIEF WARMING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK ALONG THE COAST...BUT IN GENERAL THE COLD AIR SHOULD PERSIST
OVER MOST AREAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...
       HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AREAS 2B1 2C 2C4 3A 3B 3C 4 5A 6A 14 15
       GALES AREAS 3A 12A 12B 13A 13B
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS FEB 05