Brisk Wind Advisory 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 041228
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI FEB 4 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-050300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BERING DISSIPATES SAT
AFTERNOON. A 986 MB LOW 900 NM SOUTH OF ATTU INTENSIFIES TO 961 MB
FRI EVENING 450 NM SOUTH OF ATTU AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS TO 966 MB AS
IT MOVES TO 100NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK SAT NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE BERING FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-050300-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 AM AST FRI FEB 4 2005

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
$$

PKZ155-050300-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST FRI FEB 4 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
$$

PKZ160-050300-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST FRI FEB 4 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
$$

PKZ165-050300-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST FRI FEB 4 2005

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
$$

PKZ180-050300-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST FRI FEB 4 2005

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT.
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 30 KT.
$$

PKZ170-050300-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST FRI FEB 4 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
$$

PKZ171-050300-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST FRI FEB 4 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
$$

PKZ172-050300-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST FRI FEB 4 2005

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
$$

PKZ175-050300-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST FRI FEB 4 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
$$

PKZ176-050300-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST FRI FEB 4 2005

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
$$

PKZ185-050300-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST FRI FEB 4 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
$$

PKZ179-050300-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST FRI FEB 4 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST THU FEB 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS ALASKA THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
BERING AND A CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA. AT THE SURFACE...THE
ARCTIC FRONT LIES ESSENTIALLY SOUTH OF ALL EXCEPT THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST PERSISTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA IS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. EXTREMELY COLD AND DRY AIR COVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WENT WITH THE GFS IN THE WEST AND THE
MESOETA FOR DETAIL IN THE EAST.

IN THE WEST...THE FRONT ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CHAIN AND THE BERING BEFORE DISSIPATING FRI NIGHT NEAR
BRISTOL BAY. IT WILL BE UNABLE TO MAKE FURTHER PROGRESS AGAINST THE
RIDGE. A SECOND LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A 175 KT JET AT 32N 167E THU
NIGHT WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS. IT
WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINNING FRI
NIGHT AND CROSS JUST WEST OF ADAK SAT AFTERNOON. STORMS AND GALES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MAY
BRING
SOME SNOW TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATER ON SATURDAY.

IN THE EAST...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST.
THE NORTHERN GULF TROUGH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA UNTIL
THE BERING FRONT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SNOW ACROSS KODIAK
AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LATE SAT NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...

IN THE WEST...THE BERING LOW SPINS ITSELF INTO OBLIVION BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS KEEPS COLD AIR OVER
MOST OF THE BERING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

IN THE EAST...CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO
PERSIST AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA NEAT WEEK...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS
IN FAVORED MOUNTAINOUS UPSLOPE AREAS. A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING THROUGH
THE GENERAL FLOW MAY PROVIDE SOME BRIEF WARMING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK ALONG THE COAST...BUT IN GENERAL THE COLD AIR SHOULD PERSIST
OVER MOST AREAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...
       HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AREAS 2B1 2C 2C4 3A 3B 3C 4 5A 6A 14 15
       GALES AREAS 3A 12A 12B 13A 13B
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS FEB 05