Small Craft Advisory 1059, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AST SAT DEC 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS. A STRONG JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DOMINANT HIGH OVER THE
YUKON WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST AND INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. WAA WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SUN. A LOW NEAR HOMER WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AND END MOST
PRECIP WEST OF THE CHUGACH EXCEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
KENAI PENINSULA AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING FROM THE
SUSITNA VALLEY SOUTH TO HOMER.

MODELS. LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND UKMET THIS MORNING. BELIEVE
POSITION OF THE JET SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS MORE LIKELY TO
KEEP LOWS ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE CHAIN. NAM STILL WANTS TO CROSS
THE LOW OVER DUTCH HARBOR.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE STRATUS AND
FOG IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP. PRECIP SHOULD START AGAIN AS RAIN AND
SNOW FOR THE AKPENN SUN NIGHT AS A LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVES A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. VISIBILITIES IN FOG COULD BE RESTRICTED DOWN TO
LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES TODAY FOR THE Y-K DELTA AND BRISTOL
BAY AREAS. THROUGH THE MORNING THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COOK INLET LOW ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
IT WILL BE DOWNSLOPED OUT.

ALEUTIANS. A LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MERGE WITH THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR LATE THIS MORNING. AS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAA MOVES IN TO THE
WEST BY SUN NIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AROUND THE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES WEST. EXPECT STORMS IN THE MARINES WITH GUSTS ON LAND TO 65
MPH. OTHERWISE MOST LOWS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH
MIDWEEK BRINGING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE MARINE PACKAGES.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RW DEC 05