Gale Warning 1071, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 180744 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UDPATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1045 PM AST SAT DEC 17 2005

UPDATED ZONES 121 129

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST UP TO 100 NM
OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST + KODIAK ISLAND WATERS + 
COOK INLET...

SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY. 
A 990 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK SUN EVENING WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
INTO BRISTOL BAY MONDAY.

$$

PKZ120-181500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST SAT DEC 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST SAT DEC 17 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-181500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST SAT DEC 17 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-181500-
PASSAGE CANAL
1045 PM AST SAT DEC 17 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-181500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST SAT DEC 17 2005

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST SAT DEC 17 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST SAT DEC 17 2005

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-181500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST SAT DEC 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-181500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST SAT DEC 17 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 181300
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST SUN DEC 18 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH 
MONDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST SUN DEC 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 20 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST SUN DEC 18 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST SUN DEC 18 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST SUN DEC 18 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST SUN DEC 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST SUN DEC 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST SUN DEC 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST SUN DEC 18 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
RAIN SOUTH OF THE HEADLANDS.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
RAIN SOUTH OF THE HEADLANDS.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST SUN DEC 18 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AST SAT DEC 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS. A STRONG JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DOMINANT HIGH OVER THE
YUKON WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST AND INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. WAA WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SUN. A LOW NEAR HOMER WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AND END MOST
PRECIP WEST OF THE CHUGACH EXCEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
KENAI PENINSULA AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING FROM THE
SUSITNA VALLEY SOUTH TO HOMER.

MODELS. LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND UKMET THIS MORNING. BELIEVE
POSITION OF THE JET SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IS MORE LIKELY TO
KEEP LOWS ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE CHAIN. NAM STILL WANTS TO CROSS
THE LOW OVER DUTCH HARBOR.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE STRATUS AND
FOG IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP. PRECIP SHOULD START AGAIN AS RAIN AND
SNOW FOR THE AKPENN SUN NIGHT AS A LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVES A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. VISIBILITIES IN FOG COULD BE RESTRICTED DOWN TO
LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES TODAY FOR THE Y-K DELTA AND BRISTOL
BAY AREAS. THROUGH THE MORNING THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK COOK INLET LOW ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
IT WILL BE DOWNSLOPED OUT.

ALEUTIANS. A LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MERGE WITH THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR LATE THIS MORNING. AS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAA MOVES IN TO THE
WEST BY SUN NIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AROUND THE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES WEST. EXPECT STORMS IN THE MARINES WITH GUSTS ON LAND TO 65
MPH. OTHERWISE MOST LOWS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH
MIDWEEK BRINGING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE MARINE PACKAGES.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RW DEC 05