Small Craft Advisory 1056, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST FRI DEC 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...

BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CONTINENTAL WEST COAST AND TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH LOW
CENTERS OVER WESTERN ALASKA...JUST SOUTH OF AMCHITKA...AND WELL SOUTH
OF THE AKPEN. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH GULF
COAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR 60 HOURS BEFORE THE NAM BECOMES
THE OUTLIER. FORECASTS ARE BASED MAINLY ON GFS SOLUTION AT THAT
POINT.

ONSHORE FLOW WITH PLENTY OF RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. SNOW REACHING THE ALASKA
RANGE WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW.

THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ACROSS KODIAK THIS EVENING
AND THE KENAI OVERNIGHT. DOWNSLOPING OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
WESTERN KENAI WILL END BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES...
ALLOWING FOR SOME RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. RIDGING OVER THE COAST SAT AFTERNOON SHOULD CUT OFF MOST
PRECIP OVER THE EAST...UNTIL REMNANTS OF A DECAYING FRONT BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF ONSHORE FLOW FOR SUN.

AS THE WESTERN ALASKA LOW MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL COME TO AN END...WITH CLEARING PERSISTING
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE LOW NEAR AMCHITKA WILL MERGE SAT EVENING WITH
A PACIFIC LOW HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SUBSTANTIAL WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST
ALASKA DURING THIS PERIOD.

FOR NEXT WEEK...THE ALEUTIAN LOW MOVES WEST...BRINGING WIND SNOW AND
RAIN TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS BEFORE HEADING TOWARD KAMCHATKA. IN THE
EAST...A BREAK ON MONDAY GIVES WAY TO WIND AND RAIN AS ANOTHER FRONT
HEADS TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST MON NIGHT AND TUE...ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW THAT MOVES TO THE AKPEN LATE TUE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
         STORMS 155 170
         GALES 150 160 165 171 172 175 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 05