Small Craft Advisory 1055, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI DEC 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS TODAY ARE THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE ONGOING PRECIP EVENT. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT LOW OFF THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER UKMET SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE ENERGY TRANSFERS AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH AND A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF AK.

SOUTHCENTRAL...THE STRONG JET OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND COPPER RIVER
ZONE IS LENDING SUPPORT TO STRONG NORTH TO EAST WINDS THROUGH THE
WRANGELL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LOOK FOR
CONTINUED GALES IN THE MARINES WITH A BRIEF BREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPING MINIMIZING THE
AMOUNTS IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FREEZING
DRIZZLE SCENARIO THIS MORNING AND SAT MORNING AS A SURFACE LAYER OF
COLD AIR MOVES IN AGAIN BEFORE THE MID LEVELS COOL WITH A PUSH OF CAA
FROM THE WEST. QPF SHOULD BE MINIMAL BECAUSE OF THE DOWNSLOPING
THOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SOUTH ANCHORAGE ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND..THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY FOR FREEZING RAIN
ARE IN THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AS THE 1300 THICKNESS LINE SLOWLY MOVES
EAST TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WITH POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN..RAIN AND SNOW. BREAKS IN PRECIP WILL ALLOW STRATUS AND
FOG TO MOVE IN AS WELL ENHANCED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING. FREEZING RAIN
IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY.
SNOW ALREADY ON THE GROUND SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO KEEP
MCGRATH ALL SNOW TODAY. EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE COAST
AS THE GUSTIER WINDS WRAP AROUND THE LOW.

ALEUTIANS..THE JET TO THE SOUTH OF THE CHAIN IS NOT HELPING ANY LOWS
CROSS INTO THE BERING. THE NEXT TWO LOWS TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS OVER
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE STRONGEST ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. BY SUN NIGHT A
LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BUT WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH
NO JET SUPPORT IN THE BERING. THE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CONTINUED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE MARINE PACKAGES.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RW DEC 05