Small Craft Advisory 1045, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA TODAY....WITH AN EQUALLY LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND A
CONTINUED TROUGH TO ROUGHLY 50N 160W. AN ADDITIONAL LOBE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 50N 150W.

AT THE SURFACE...LOWS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF ADAK AND WELL SOUTH OF THE
AKPEN WITH A RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOBE OF LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF KODIAK HAS PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
RAIN MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
AKPEN IN A SWEEPING ARC TO SAND POINT BY WED NIGHT....WHILE THE ADAK
LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BERING DURING THE SAME PERIOD. AT THIS
POINT THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO THE FORECAST
LEANS HEAVILY ON THE GFS WHICH BRINGS THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW
TOWARD THE AKPEN NEAR KODIAK ISLAND THU NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE
NORTHWEST BERING LOW SWINGS BACK TOWARD SHEMYA.

THE LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND THE MAIN FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SAND POINT LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO TURNAGAIN ARM
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT. BY THU PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES WILL BE ALL RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH SNOW INLAND EAST
OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

IN THE WEST...COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MAINLAND. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADAK LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE
BERING THROUGH WED. A GLANCING BLOW OF WARM ADVECTION TOWARD THE
COAST MAY BRING SOME FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND WED ANS SNOW
ELSEWHERE.  OTHERWISE...THE LOCATION OF THE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING
AND THE NEXT AKPEN LOW ON THU WILL KEEP STRONG EAST WIND OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING AND STRONG WEST WINDS OVER THE ALEUTIANS TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 140 185
  GALES 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 180 170 171 172 175 179
  STORMS 120 130 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 05