Gale Warning 1056, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 131634 CCA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

RETRANSMISSION

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-140300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT
AND REMAIN IN THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A 978 MB LOW TODAY 600 NM
SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO 275 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WEDNESDAY AND
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY. 

$$

PKZ120-140300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...WINDS BECOMING E 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-140300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-140300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-140300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-140300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E TO NE WINDS 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY BARREN ISLANDS WEST.  
.WED...E TO NE WINDS 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-140300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E TO NE WINDS TO 35 KT DEVELOPING SOUTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE
THIS MORNING AND SPREADING NORTH. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-140300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-140300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-140300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 140014
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 972 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY WEAKENS TO 979 MB WED EVENING
NEAR SAND POINT AND REMAINS STATIONARY. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES FROM
THE WESTERN GULF TO THE NORTH GULF COAST BY WED EVENING. A SECOND
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHES THE COAST THU EVENING.
$$

PKZ120-141500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-141500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-141500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-141500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-141500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-141500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-141500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-141500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND OTHERWISE NE WIND 25
KT. SEAS 15 FT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND OTHERWISE SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND OTHERWISE NE 30 KT. SEAS
18 FT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND OTHERWISE SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF
KALGIN ISLAND. OTHERWISE NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 8 FT NORTH
OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-141500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE DEC 13 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
530 AM AST MON DEC 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...
UKMET INITIALIZES BEST THIS MORNING BUT SOLUTION QUICKLY DIVERGES
FROM ETA AND GFS BY 24 HOURS. ETA AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
48 HOURS BEFORE ETA COMPLICATES THE FORECAST BY NOT DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW AS DEEP AS THE GFS. CONFIDENCE IN ETA PAST 48 HOURS IS
LOW GIVEN THAT THE WAVES ENTERING ARE FORECAST AREA ARE DEVELOPING
OUTSIDE THE ETA DOMAIN. GFS SOLUTION IS THE BEST AND FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT THAT. EXTENDED FORECAST WAS ONLY
TWEAKED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY PAST 60
HOURS.

500MB...
MAIN UPPER FEATURE IS 501 DAM LOW IN THE BERING SEA RETROGRADING
ALONG 55N FROM 175W ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. UNRELENTING
SUPPLY OF SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND BASE OF UPPER TROUGH COINCIDING
WITH 185 KT JET FLOWING W-E ALONG THE 40TH PARALLEL. UPPER RIDGE
STILL BUILDING WITH AXIS ALONG THE BC COAST AND AK PANHANDLE. THIS
RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST BY FRIDAY AS NORTH PACIFIC JET
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED DEEPENING THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 160W.

SURFACE...
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVES ARE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND REACHING
MATURITY NEAR 170W. IT IS HERE WHERE THEY LOSE UPPER SUPPORT AND
WEAKEN AS THEY TURN NORTH TOWARD THE AKPEN. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEEPEN. THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE LOWS
PROGRESSING FURTHER EAST BEFORE TURNING NORTH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AK.
IN THE MEAN TIME...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS
RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE MARINE ZONES AND IS NOW
SPILLING OVER INTO OUR COASTAL ZONES. KODIAK ALREADY EXPERIENCING
GALE FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING. GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE MAJORITY OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO
BE A NUISANCE INLAND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN.

OUT WEST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE INTERIOR AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER MARINE ZONES. A COUPLE OF
INTERESTING NOTES FROM THE 12Z SOUNDINGS...PAKN REPORTED WINDS 60 KT
JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND PABE HAD 40 KT WINDS AT 2000 FT. 50 KT WINDS
REPORTED AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DELTA
RESULTING IN ISOLATED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE MARINE PACKAGES.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB DEC 05