Small Craft Advisory 1022, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE DEC 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MODEL PERFORMANCE...
   MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS ONCE AGAIN PREFERRED OVER
ETA WEST OF 165. ETA SLIGHTLY PREFERRED TO THE EAST.

500 MB PATTERN...
   506 DAM LOW OVER WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 493 DAM
WED NIGHT NEAR THE PRIBILOFS. GFS THEN WEAKENS THIS LOW AND MOVES IT
NEAR KOTZEBUE BY FRI AFTERNOON. H500 RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
FLATTENS OUT AND WEAKENS BY THU MORNING.

SURFACE FEATURES...
   A 1001 MB LOW 480 NM SOUTH OF CAPE YAKATAGA WILL DISSIPATE
NEAR YAKUTAT TUE NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
   A 984 MB LOW NEAR SAINT PAUL WILL DISSIPATE NEAR MEKORYUK
TUE EVENING. A 975 MB LOW NEAR AMCHITKA WILL DISSIPATE NEAR 210 NM
SOUTH OF ADAK WED MORNING.
   A 963 MB LOW 240 NM SOUTH OF ADAK TUE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME A
MAJOR 947 MB LOW 90 NM EAST OF SAINT GEORGE WED NIGHT.
   ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR BETHEL...THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...ACROSS THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...
AND ALONG THE CHUCKCHI MOUNTAINS. ARCTIC FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MIX
OUT THROUGH 60 HOURS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

WIND...
   PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE USUAL CHANNELED
AREAS. EAST WINDS UP TO 60 MPH TODAY THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND
PORTAGE VALLEY. WINDS LIKELY TO EXCEED 75 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
   ALSO STORM FORCE EAST WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

PRECIPITATION...
   SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND OF ALASKA WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE.
   EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...BRISTOL
BAY...KODIAK ISLAND...THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS SNOW TO THE
NORTH. CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TODAY NEAR BETHEL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND 101 125 135
         HEAVY SNOW 145
MARINE...STORM 120 129 138 170 172 185
         GALES 125 130 132 140 141 150 155 160 165 171 175 176
               179 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB DEC 05