Gale Warning 1033, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST TUE DEC 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...UKMET MODEL UNAVAILABLE. NCEP MODELS IN GENERAL
SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT ON PRESSURE CENTERS. FORECAST TRENDS
REASONABLE. ETA 850 MB TEMPS INITIALIZED ABOUT 2C TOO HIGH OVER THE
MATSU/ANCHORAGE BOWL. THIS COLD BIAS IS CARRIED THROUGH THIS MODEL
RUN.

EAST...LOWER 990S LOW OVER BARREN ISLANDS AROUND NOON TODAY WILL MOVE
UP COOK INLET TO OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY THIS EVE AND INTO THE
INTERIOR TONIGHT. FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE KENAI PEN/NORTH GULF MOVES
INTO THE INTERIOR. WARM AIR OVERRUNNING SHALLOW COLD AIR SOUTHCENTRAL
WILL CONTINUE FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS MOISTURE MOVES N. WINDS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT BUT INCREASE EARLY WED AS
MAJOR LOW CENTER MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.WEST...WARM AIR OVERRUNNING ARCTIC BOUNDARY OVER THE DELTA/SOUTHERN
KUSKOKWIM WILL CONTINUE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL INTO EARLY EVENING.
WILL SEE SHORT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION UNTIL NEXT FRONT BRINGS RAIN TO
BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING. FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE WESTERN DELTA
AND PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM WED WITH NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE.
STORM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS DEEPENS TO THE MID 940S AS IT
TRACKS NW OF PADU WED AFTERNOON. THEN WEAKENS TO 950S NEAR WESTERN
BRISTOL BAY ON THU AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ON WEST AND
SOUTH QUADS WITH BENT BACK OCCLUSION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH ZONE 101, HVY SNOW WARNING ZONE 145,
         NUMBEROUS ADVISORIES.
MARINE...SEE CURRENT PACKAGE.

RMC DEC 05