Small Craft Advisory 1020, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AST MON DEC 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MODEL PERFORMANCE...
MODELS IN GENLY GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS AND UKMET PREFERRED WEST OF 170W
FOR ABILITY TO RESOLVE MULTIPLE LOWS SOUTH OF WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

500 MB LEVEL PATTERNS...
STRENGTHENING H500 RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL ACT AS A BLOCK
FOR LOWS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INLAND. PERSISTENT H500 LOW SOUTHWEST
OF SHEMYA WILL ENCOURAGE THE ONGOING DEVELOPMENT OF A SERIES OF
INTENSE SURFACE LOWS ALONG AND JUST OF SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

SURFACE FEATURES...
BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND THE NORTH GULF COAST. STRONG COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. BROAD EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BERING
SEA WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TUE EVENING.

PRECIPITATION...
ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH BRISTOL BAY TO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT. SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN TODAY IN
BRISTOL BAY. LESSER CHANCE IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...SOUTHWESTERN
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. PRECIP FALLING AS
RAIN OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. SCATTERED MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
PRIBILOFS TODAY. RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TODAY IS THE RESULT OF A SPIRALING OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

WIND...
TURNAGAIN ARM PORTAGE VALLEY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 138 140 170 172 175 176 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 125 130 140 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB DEC 05