Small Craft Advisory 1019, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 050116 AAA
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
415 PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005

UPDATED AREAS 160 195

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WEAKENS TONIGHT.
A BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. A 991 MB LOW MOVES TO 380 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
$$

PKZ150-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-051500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-051500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
415 PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 58N IN THE EVENING.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-051500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-051500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-051500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-051500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-051500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-051500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-051500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
415 PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SIMILAR AND REASONABLE. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON MSL PRESSURE/WIND
FORECAST FIELDS. NCEP MODEL TEMP/MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERNS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND SW AK. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS SNOW HAS
STARTED TO SHOW UP ON THE PABC/PAKC RADARS. MORNING PACKAGE IN
GENERAL WAS BASED GFS RUN. WILL CONTINUE SAME THEME WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS.

.EAST...
ARCTIC FRONT IS PUSHING NORTH FROM THE AK PEN AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH OF KODIAK CITY EARLY MON MORNING TO THE JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI
PEN/N GULF COAST MON AFTERNOON. GFS THEN MOVES ARCTIC BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THAT THIS APPEARS TOO FAST AS POCKETS OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTHCENTRAL. EXPECT OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL MOVE INTO
KODIAK ZONE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SHIFT TO RAIN EARLY MON
MORNING. FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL KODIAK ZONE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST SIDE OF ISLAND. OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL
SPREAD TO SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND INTO THE COPPER RIVER ON MON.
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL POSSIBLE SOUTHCENTRAL TUE.

.WEST...
ARCTIC BOUNDARY BOUNDARY HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AK PEN AND WILL
RETREAT TO OVER THE BRISTOL BAY COAST TUE MORNING. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/KUSKOKWIM DELTA MON EVE AND OVER THE
NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MON. RADARS ALONG THE SW COAST SHOW
OVERRUNNING SNOW MOVING TO TOWARD COAST. EXPECT SNOW OVER BRISTOL BAY
WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND WILL PROB SHIFT TO
RAIN OR MIXED MON. SNOW MOVING INTO THE DELTA PROB WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH FREEZING RAIN MON AS COLD AIR OVERRIDES TRAPPED COLD AIR.

SERIES OF INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT PERIODS OF
GALES AND GEN RAIN OVER THAT REGION TO CONTINUE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE CURRENT PACKAGE.

RMC DEC 05