Gale Warning 1026, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 051300
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST MON DEC 5 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 983 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE BY MON EVENING.
A 979 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL DISSIPATE 120 NM EAST OF
ADAK MON NIGHT. 
A 963 MB LOW 630 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA MON EVENING WILL BECOME A
955 MB LOW 75 NM SOUTH OF SEGUAM ISLAND TUE NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST MON DEC 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST MON DEC 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-060300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST MON DEC 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR HEADLANDS.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-060300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST MON DEC 5 2005

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-060300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST MON DEC 5 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST MON DEC 5 2005

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 40 KT SOUTH OF THE UNALASKA ISLAND IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT SOUTH OF UNALASKA
ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-060300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST MON DEC 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST MON DEC 5 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST MON DEC 5 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST MON DEC 5 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-060300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST MON DEC 5 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-060300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST MON DEC 5 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST SUN DEC 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SIMILAR AND REASONABLE. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON MSL PRESSURE/WIND
FORECAST FIELDS. NCEP MODEL TEMP/MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERNS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND SW AK. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS SNOW HAS
STARTED TO SHOW UP ON THE PABC/PAKC RADARS. MORNING PACKAGE IN
GENERAL WAS BASED GFS RUN. WILL CONTINUE SAME THEME WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS.

.EAST...
ARCTIC FRONT IS PUSHING NORTH FROM THE AK PEN AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH OF KODIAK CITY EARLY MON MORNING TO THE JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI
PEN/N GULF COAST MON AFTERNOON. GFS THEN MOVES ARCTIC BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THAT THIS APPEARS TOO FAST AS POCKETS OF COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER
INTERIOR VALLEYS SOUTHCENTRAL. EXPECT OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL MOVE INTO
KODIAK ZONE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SHIFT TO RAIN EARLY MON
MORNING. FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL KODIAK ZONE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST SIDE OF ISLAND. OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL
SPREAD TO SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AND INTO THE COPPER RIVER ON MON.
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL POSSIBLE SOUTHCENTRAL TUE.

.WEST...
ARCTIC BOUNDARY BOUNDARY HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AK PEN AND WILL
RETREAT TO OVER THE BRISTOL BAY COAST TUE MORNING. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/KUSKOKWIM DELTA MON EVE AND OVER THE
NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MON. RADARS ALONG THE SW COAST SHOW
OVERRUNNING SNOW MOVING TO TOWARD COAST. EXPECT SNOW OVER BRISTOL BAY
WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND WILL PROB SHIFT TO
RAIN OR MIXED MON. SNOW MOVING INTO THE DELTA PROB WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH FREEZING RAIN MON AS COLD AIR OVERRIDES TRAPPED COLD AIR.

SERIES OF INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT PERIODS OF
GALES AND GEN RAIN OVER THAT REGION TO CONTINUE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE CURRENT PACKAGE.

RMC DEC 05