Small Craft Advisory 1016, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST SAT DEC 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SIMILAR AND REASONABLE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON MSL PRESSURE/WIND FORECAST FIELDS. MODEL
TEMP/MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERNS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE AND REASONABLE. MORNING PACKAGE WAS
BASED ON GFS SOLUTION. THIS STILLS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST CHOICE SO WILL CONTINUE THEME
WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGES.

500MB...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND/GULF ALASKA TODAY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS N
AND EAST TONIGHT AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SHORT WAVE OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES OVER SW ALASKA SUN AND THEN COMES IN PHASE WITH LONG WAVE
OVER WESTERN CANADA MON. LOW CENTER SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA PEN MOVES SOUTH OF WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SUN AND INTENSIFIES. ASSOCIATED TROUGH DIGS SE. IN RESPONSE...RIDGE BUILDS
TO EAST AND TILTS SE TO NW FROM ALONG 135W SOUTH OF GULF TO OVER SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
MON AFTERNOON.

SURFACE
.EAST...WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTH GULF HANDLED BEST BY ETA MODEL IN SHORT RUN.
CENTER IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...BUT SHOULD STALL NEAR
CORDOVA AND SHIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS GULF COASTAL AREAS
WILL END TONIGHT. GENERALLY COLD CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG INLAND AREAS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN. ARCTIC FRONT ALONG THE ALEUTIANS PUSHES NORTH TO OVER KODIAK
ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON AND TO THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA MON. EXPECT OVERRUNNING SNOW TO
SPREAD TO KODIAK SUN MORNING AND SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF SUN EVE. SNOW SHOULD SHIFT TO RAIN
KODIAK BY SUN EVENING. SNOW WILL PROB BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN KENAI
PEN MON.

.WEST...SW MAINLAND WILL REMAIN DRY AND COLD WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT. ARCTIC FRONT
OVER THE ALEUTIAN WILL PUSH NORTH TO OVER SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY SUN AFTERNOON AND TO
ALONG THE NORTH BRISTOL BAY COAST SUN EVE. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AK
PEN TODAY WILL SPREAD TO BRISTOL BAY SUN MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST MON. EXPECT SNOW
OVER AK PEN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. SNOW WILL SPREAD TO
BRISTOL BAY SUN AND PROB BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN/FREEZING RAIN SUN EVE/NIGHT. BRISK
E-NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
THROUGH MON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE CURRENT PACKAGE.

RMC DEC 05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
4 PM AST SAT DEC 3 2005

AKZ161-050700-

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM AST SUNDAY MORNING TO
10 PM AST SUNDAY NIGHT...

...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TOWARD THE
AKPEN WILL BRING MIXED BAG OF WINTER WEATHER INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
SUNDAY. COLD ARCTIC AIR IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE INTERIOR AND AS THE
LOW APPROACHES...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF PORT HEIDEN. EXPECTING 6 TO 9 INCHES IN
PLACES LIKE KING SALMON AND DILLINGHAM AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
ILLIAMNA. HEAVIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND
LESSER SNOWFALL TOTALS NORTHWEST OVER THE AHKLUN MOUNTAIN RANGE.

WARM AIR AT THE MID LEVELS WILL INTRUDE ON THE COLD AIR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING BRINGING FREEZING RAIN INTO THE PICTURE. THE CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TO INCLUDE
VILLAGES AS FAR NORTH AS NEW STUYAHOK. ILLIAMNA WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW
THE LONGEST BEFORE GETTING A BRIEF SHOT OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE ILLIAMNA MAY ALSO SEE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AS EASTERLY WINDS ARE
CHANNELED THROUGH THE NEARBY MOUNTAIN RANGE.

WE ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

AB DEC 05

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