Gale Warning 717, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 160626 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1025 PM ADT THU SEP 15 2005

UPDATED ZONE 141

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF FRI. A 997 MB LOW 185 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AND STRENGTHEN
TO 983 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-161400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT THU SEP 15 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONGEST WIND WEST OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT S
WIND 15 KT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-161400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT THU SEP 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-161400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT THU SEP 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-161400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT THU SEP 15 2005

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ130-161400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT THU SEP 15 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGER
GUSTS 50 KTS THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-161400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT THU SEP 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-161400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT THU SEP 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-161400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT THU SEP 15 2005

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 30 KT OUT OF
TURNAGAIN ARM. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-161400-
KACHEMAK BAY
1025 PM ADT THU SEP 15 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT OR LESS 
TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 161202
CWFAER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1001 MB GALE FORCE LOW JUST OFF KODIAK CITY WILL MAKE LANDFALL AT
999 MB NEAR SEWARD FRI EVENING. A 990 MB LOW NEAR JUST OFF SAND POINT
FRI NIGHT WILL DEVELOP TO STORM FORCE 982 MB OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SAT NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AT 986 MB NEAR CAPE SUCKLING
SUN AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-170200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN
AND FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-170200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-170200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-170200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-170200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS.  
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
$$

PKZ132-170200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
$$

PKZ138-170200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
$$

PKZ140-170200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-170200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG LATE. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT THU SEP 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 975 MB LOW IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER ST MATTHEW ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW AND ITS WEATHER FRONT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST OF
THE WEATHER OVER THE STATE TODAY. THE MAIN FRONT IS STRETCHED OUT OF
THE LOW INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THEN DOWN TOWARD COOK INLET AND
KODIAK ISLAND. THE TRIPLE POINT THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS CAN BE SEEN NEAR KODIAK AS AN INFLECTION POINT ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS TRIPLE POINT LOW APPEARS TO BE HEADING TOWARD THE SEWARD
AREA AND THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT JUMPS THE KENAI MOUNTAINS AND GOES
INTO NORTHERN COOK INLET OVERNIGHT. AREAS IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS UNTIL THIS POINT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.
THE MAIN FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD AT A RAPID PACE BUT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT RUNS INTO A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA.
THE PARENT LOW OVER ST MATTHEW ISLAND IS IN NO HURRY TO MOVE AND WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE TOWARD NORTON SOUND THIS WEEKEND.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE JET STREAM IS READILY VISIBLE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS ON THE IR SATELLITE PICTURE. AT 250 MB THIS JET IS
PUSHING 150 KNOTS IN WIND SPEED AN WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. A 1000 MB LOW THAT IS SOUTH OF ATTU WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS JET
AND MOVE SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL
JUST SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN TO 997 MB FRIDAY BUT THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN
AFTER THAT DROPPING ABOUT 15 MB BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

ANOTHER SITUATION TO WATCH IS THE STORM SURGE THAT IS BUILDING UP
AROUND THE ST MATTHEW ISLAND LOW. THE LARGEST SURGE IN THE ANCHORAGE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND HOOPER BAY. WE ARE EXPECTING ABOUT 2
FEET ABOVE SPRING TIDES WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE. LARGER VALUES ARE
LIKELY IN NORTON SOUND WHERE THE SURGE MAY BE 4 FEET ABOVE SPRING
TIDES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ SEP 05