Storm Warning 145, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 161151
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 979 MB LOW 40 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL WEAKEN 
TO 991 MB AS IT DRIFTS TO 75 NM WEST OF CAPE ROMANZOF SAT NIGHT. 
A 1002 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 200 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI AFTERNOON AT 998 MB AND THEN TO 
50 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT FRI NIGHT AT 990 MB.

$$

PKZ150-170200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO W 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-170200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO W 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO W 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-170200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS INCREASING TO W 20 KT. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-170200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-170200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-170200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO W 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-170200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO W 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-170200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-170200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-170200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO W 25 KT THIS MORNING. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-170200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-170200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 16 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT THU SEP 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 975 MB LOW IS SITTING DIRECTLY OVER ST MATTHEW ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW AND ITS WEATHER FRONT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST OF
THE WEATHER OVER THE STATE TODAY. THE MAIN FRONT IS STRETCHED OUT OF
THE LOW INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THEN DOWN TOWARD COOK INLET AND
KODIAK ISLAND. THE TRIPLE POINT THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS CAN BE SEEN NEAR KODIAK AS AN INFLECTION POINT ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS TRIPLE POINT LOW APPEARS TO BE HEADING TOWARD THE SEWARD
AREA AND THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT JUMPS THE KENAI MOUNTAINS AND GOES
INTO NORTHERN COOK INLET OVERNIGHT. AREAS IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS UNTIL THIS POINT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.
THE MAIN FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD AT A RAPID PACE BUT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT RUNS INTO A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA.
THE PARENT LOW OVER ST MATTHEW ISLAND IS IN NO HURRY TO MOVE AND WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE TOWARD NORTON SOUND THIS WEEKEND.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE JET STREAM IS READILY VISIBLE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS ON THE IR SATELLITE PICTURE. AT 250 MB THIS JET IS
PUSHING 150 KNOTS IN WIND SPEED AN WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA. A 1000 MB LOW THAT IS SOUTH OF ATTU WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS JET
AND MOVE SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL
JUST SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN TO 997 MB FRIDAY BUT THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN
AFTER THAT DROPPING ABOUT 15 MB BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

ANOTHER SITUATION TO WATCH IS THE STORM SURGE THAT IS BUILDING UP
AROUND THE ST MATTHEW ISLAND LOW. THE LARGEST SURGE IN THE ANCHORAGE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND HOOPER BAY. WE ARE EXPECTING ABOUT 2
FEET ABOVE SPRING TIDES WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE. LARGER VALUES ARE
LIKELY IN NORTON SOUND WHERE THE SURGE MAY BE 4 FEET ABOVE SPRING
TIDES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ SEP 05