Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
350 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AREA OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION IN 30KT LOW LEVEL JET HAS HELPED
FIRE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGING AROUND MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE ARE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE ARE ALREADY ENTERING SWRN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
WITH LOW OVER NWRN SD THIS MORNING...AND PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS
ND TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE ARE TODAY. STRONG
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND ADVISORY POSTED
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE FAR WEST.
AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY...REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROWAL AXIS ON BACK SIDE OF LOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING FROM A
COOLER THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
STILL A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT TAKING PLACE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS. FOR
SATURDAY...LATEST GFS NOW SHOWING 5H WAVE TRAVERSING ALONG ND/SD
BORDER PUSHING INTO MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. CANADIAN AGREES THAT MOST OF
PCPN PUSHES INTO ND DURING DAY SATURDAY...WITH MARGINAL 7H CAPPING
TEMPS STILL FCSTD(+10 TO +12). THE 28/18Z DGEX KEEPS WAVE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SAT WX GRIDS IN PLACE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.

POTENT COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH MODELS
AGAIN PAINTING MAJORITY OF QPF FURTHER TO THE NORTH. GFS DOES SHOW
GOOD 7H OMEGA TAKING PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF FEATURE...WITH
NOCTURNAL TSRA POSSIBLE ON DEVELOPING LOLVL JET. BY 00Z MONDAY 7H
TEMPS FALL INTO THE +3 TO +5 DEGREE C RANGE.

CANADIAN HIGH KEEPS WX DRY FOR REMAINDER OF FCST. WAA RETURNING TO
THE WRN CWA TUESDAY AFTN MAY RESULT IN SOME TSRA FIRING...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY QPF.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COUNTIES FROM 3 PM CDT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT CDT.
MN...NONE.
&&

KNUTSVIG/HINTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
523 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-291021-
BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH-
523 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-291021-
BIG STONE-BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-SPINK-TRAVERSE-
523 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AS WELL AS BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

KNUTSVIG