Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Aberdeen, SD

000 
WWUS53 KABR 290638
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
137 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

SDC041-290700-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-050629T0700Z/
DEWEY SD-
1237 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR DEWEY COUNTY UNTIL 100
AM MDT...

AT 1231 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF SUTTON BAY REC AREA...OR
26 MILES WEST OF GETTYSBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN DEWEY COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4497 10081 4481 10052 4482 10051 4509 10034
      4515 10051

$$
HINTZ

000 
WWUS53 KABR 290659
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
159 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

SDC041-290709-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-050629T0700Z/
DEWEY SD-
1259 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DEWEY COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE...

AT 1256 AM MDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED. THEREFORE...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4497 10081 4481 10052 4482 10051 4509 10034
      4515 10051

$$
HINTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CONVECTION CHANCES TONIGHT WITH THE
SPC FORECAST MODERATE RISK AREA. DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SLOW TODAY
DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION AND DIMINISHMENT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION.

A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF WATERTOWN TO
PIERRE TO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND HAS BEEN MAKING A GRADUAL
PUSH TO THE NORTH ALL DAY. LOTS OF HEATING TO THE SOUTH OF IT AND
DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN SOUTHEASTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD DRY LINE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN RAPID CITY AND GILLETTE ALONG WITH WHAT APPEARS TO
BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. EXPECT ANY OF THESE FEATURES COULD BE WHERE INITIATION
WILL OCCUR. THERE ARE LOTS OF FACTORS TO INDICATE STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE QUICKLY ONCE THEY DEVELOP...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND TORNADOES. A DECENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER 40 KTS AND 0-1 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST AROUND 25
KTS...WITH FORECAST CAPES TO BE IN THE 3500-4500 J/KG RANGE BY THIS
EVENING. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTORS RIGHT NOW ARE THE HIGH LFC
HEIGHTS OFF OF AREA 18Z SOUNDINGS. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF TRW+
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 23Z...THEN SPREADING TO THE
EASTERN CWA AFTER 02Z. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIMING CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE MODIFICATIONS. THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL JUST REACH
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES TO MINNESOTA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF TRW GOING TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY FOR THIS REASON.

UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...PUSHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG DOWN THE EXTREME WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...BUT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO NOT BE A FACTOR IN FRIDAYS
WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...EXPECT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO BE DRY.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THE CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT TEMPS AROUND
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY STARTS UNDER WEAK RIDGING WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. EXTREME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND COOLING ALOFT WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 12Z GFS80 NOW
SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 6000 J/KG AND LIS OF -9 OVER
SOME LOCATIONS IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ATMOSPHERE IS MARGINALLY
CAPPED WITH H7 TEMPERATURES AT +10-12C...HOWEVER SURFACE HEATING AND
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP. POPS
RAISED IN THE EASTERN CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA SUNDAY
SO TIMING FOR PRECIP WAS LEFT ALONE. THE CWA REMAINS UNDER ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
HOWEVER MODELS HAVE NOT LATCHED ON TO ANY ONE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WERE KEPT DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED POPS BROUGHT
IN.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

PARKIN/LILES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
523 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-291021-
BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH-
523 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-291021-
BIG STONE-BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-SPINK-TRAVERSE-
523 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AS WELL AS BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

KNUTSVIG