Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1045 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

.UPDATE...ONGOING SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND SOME DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS. NEW
GRIDS AND WORDS BEING KICKED OUT THE DOOR AT THIS TIME FOR TOR WATCH
432. REMAINING WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 5Z.      DORN

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FOCUS FOR THIS DAY IS ON SHORT TERM.  MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING
THINGS WELL. MODELS AGREE ON UPPER H5 WAVE MOVING NORTH AND
STRENGTHENING.  THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE REFLECTION INTO THE WESTERN
PART OF SOUTH DAKOTA.  IT WILL INTERACT WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE.  PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE
ELUSIVE BUT WILL BE MAJOR IN SPOTTING STRONGEST WEATHER.  AT THIS
TIME EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE WEST AND ALSO EXPECT TO
SEE CONVECTION FIRING EAST OF THE RIVER.  CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND
3K-4K WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES APPROACHING -10.  7/00Z WRF MODELS
SUGGESTS CONVECTION LINING OUT NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE AND MOVING EAST.  EXPECT IT TO MEET EAST RIVER CONVECTION
LATER TONIGHT AND FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY TOMORROW THE WAVE HAS PASSED AND THIS AREA IS LEFT IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.  LEFT OVER BAROCLINIC ZONES
WILL HELP FOCUS FUTURE CONVECTION.  DID INCLUDE ANOTHER EPISODE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LATEST MODELS RUNS DONT REALLY ALTER MUCH IN THEIR THINKING. STILL
SHOWING BROAD WRN CONUS TROF WITH ERN CONUS RIDGE. GFS CONTS TO SHOW
WAVES EJECTING OUT OF TROF OVER REGION SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONCURS WITH OVERALL JIST OF THINKING..ALTHO MINOR
TIMING ISSUES ARISE. SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE DRY AS WEAK 5H S/W
RIDGING MOVES OVER CWA AND HIGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALTHO ALSO
ADMIT THAT THIS FAR OUT TIMING OF WAVES RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION
DIFFICULT AT BEST. CONT TO KEEP TUESDAY DRY AS WRN TROF SHEARS AND
LIFTS...ALTHO FEELING IS THAT THIS MAY BE A TAD TOO QUICK.

CURRENT FCST TEMPS STILL REMAIN REASONABLE GIVEN WAA REGIME OVER
AREA BALANCED WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. DID MINOR COSMETIC TWEAKING
BUT OVERALL TEMPS PRETTY MUCH LEFT AS INHERITED.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

KEEFE/HINTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1117 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-081100-
BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH-
1117 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM CDT...WITH SOME STORMS QUICKLY
BECOMING SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS ON THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON.

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-081100-
BIG STONE-BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-SPINK-TRAVERSE-
1117 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AS WELL AS BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL INTERACT WITH WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP BY 5
PM CDT...WITH SOME STORMS QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS ON THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON.

HINTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...TIME CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 PM     TSTM WND GST     BRENTWOOD COLONY        45.15N 99.30W
06/07/2005  85 MPH           FAULK              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL BUILDINGS...SHEDS...TREES DOWN

&&

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 NW PRESHO             44.00N 100.19W
06/07/2005  65 MPH           LYMAN              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1234 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HAIL             3 W WATERTOWN           44.91N 97.23W
06/08/2005  1.00 INCH        CODINGTON          SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1237 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 AM     TSTM WND GST     HAYTI                   44.66N 97.20W
06/08/2005  72 MPH           HAMLIN             SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1241 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 AM     HAIL             1 W MILBANK             45.22N 96.66W
06/08/2005  0.75 INCH        GRANT              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1243 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     TSTM WND GST     MELLETTE                45.15N 98.50W
06/07/2005  70 MPH           SPINK              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TMT