Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FOCUS FOR THIS DAY IS ON SHORT TERM.  MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING
THINGS WELL. MODELS AGREE ON UPPER H5 WAVE MOVING NORTH AND
STRENGTHENING.  THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE REFLECTION INTO THE WESTERN
PART OF SOUTH DAKOTA.  IT WILL INTERACT WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE.  PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE
ELUSIVE BUT WILL BE MAJOR IN SPOTTING STRONGEST WEATHER.  AT THIS
TIME EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE WEST AND ALSO EXPECT TO
SEE CONVECTION FIRING EAST OF THE RIVER.  CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND
3K-4K WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES APPROACHING -10.  7/00Z WRF MODELS
SUGGESTS CONVECTION LINING OUT NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE AND MOVING EAST.  EXPECT IT TO MEET EAST RIVER CONVECTION
LATER TONIGHT AND FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY TOMORROW THE WAVE HAS PASSED AND THIS AREA IS LEFT IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.  LEFT OVER BAROCLINIC ZONES
WILL HELP FOCUS FUTURE CONVECTION.  DID INCLUDE ANOTHER EPISODE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LATEST MODELS RUNS DONT REALLY ALTER MUCH IN THEIR THINKING. STILL
SHOWING BROAD WRN CONUS TROF WITH ERN CONUS RIDGE. GFS CONTS TO SHOW
WAVES EJECTING OUT OF TROF OVER REGION SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONCURS WITH OVERALL JIST OF THINKING..ALTHO MINOR
TIMING ISSUES ARISE. SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE DRY AS WEAK 5H S/W
RIDGING MOVES OVER CWA AND HIGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALTHO ALSO
ADMIT THAT THIS FAR OUT TIMING OF WAVES RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION
DIFFICULT AT BEST. CONT TO KEEP TUESDAY DRY AS WRN TROF SHEARS AND
LIFTS...ALTHO FEELING IS THAT THIS MAY BE A TAD TOO QUICK.

CURRENT FCST TEMPS STILL REMAIN REASONABLE GIVEN WAA REGIME OVER
AREA BALANCED WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. DID MINOR COSMETIC TWEAKING
BUT OVERALL TEMPS PRETTY MUCH LEFT AS INHERITED.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

KEEFE/HINTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1117 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-081100-
BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH-
1117 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM CDT...WITH SOME STORMS QUICKLY
BECOMING SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS ON THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON.

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-081100-
BIG STONE-BROWN-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-SPINK-TRAVERSE-
1117 AM CDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AS WELL AS BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL INTERACT WITH WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP BY 5
PM CDT...WITH SOME STORMS QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS ON THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON.

HINTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
640 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             30 S KELDRON            45.50N 101.81W
06/07/2005  0.75 INCH        CORSON             SD   UNKNOWN

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SE MCINTOSH           45.86N 101.26W
06/07/2005  80 MPH           CORSON             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PARKIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
749 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     HAIL             MCLAUGHLIN              45.81N 100.81W
06/07/2005  0.75 INCH        CORSON             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PARKIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
810 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MCLAUGHLIN              45.81N 100.81W
06/07/2005                   CORSON             SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER IN THE STREETS OF MCLAUGHLIN.

&&

LILES