Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
315 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER NICELY FOR SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY CONTINUING
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. SCATTERED CELLS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS NW
ARKANSAS WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION UNDERWAY. EXPECT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.
TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CWA TIL 02Z.

SYNOPTIACLLY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL OK IN GENERAL VICINITY OF I-44. SFC TEMPS HAVE
WARMED INTO UPPER 70S TO THE SOUTH WITH DEW POINTS IN MID
60S...YIELDING CAPES UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG...SO INSTABILITY NOT IN
QUESTION AT ALL AND VERY LITTLE CAPPING EVIDENT. SFC LOW DEEPENING
OVER SE COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE SHOULD
HELP LIFT BOUNDARY TOWARD KS BORDER SO JUST ABOUT ENTIRE AREA UNDER
THE GUN. 18Z RAOB OUT OF OUN SHOWING INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS
AND DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO STAY BACKED. THIS WILL
RING INCREASE IN TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN AREA
NEAR I-40 CORRIDOR WHERE REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRESENT.

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT NORTH OF MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HAVE CARRIED HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS FAR NE OK AND NW ARK...THOUGH BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL FARTHER
SOUTH. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL WELL
INTO THE NIGHT.

REPEAT PERFORMANCE THURSDAY? NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS
SYNOPTIC FRONT REMAINS IN SAME GENERAL AREA AND SOME TYPE OF
BOUNDARY FROM TONIGHTS STORMS WILL BE PRESENT. 12Z ETA SUGGESTS BEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH. SHEAR PROFILES AGAIN
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AGAIN BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR ANY
BOUNDARIES PRESENT. EXPECT COVERAGE INCREASE AGAIN THU NIGHT WITH
LLJ. MAY BE ANOTHER LONG NIGHT.

STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE APPROACHING ON FRIDAY AND WHILE UPPER
DYNAMICS ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE...AXIS OF INSTABILITY PROGGED TO SHIFT
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE GREATER
BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL LESS FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SFC FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ETA IS SLOWER AND KEEPS SOME PRECIP AROUND MOST
OF THE DAY.

BEYOND THAT A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP (AND
MAYBE A VERY WELCOME BREAK) THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. KEPT
EXTENDED DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    58   76   58   69 /  70   30   70   70
FSM    61   78   62   73 /  70   30   70   70
MLC    63   78   63   73 /  50   30   50   70
BVO    57   74   56   67 /  70   30   70   70
FYV    58   72   59   68 /  80   30   70   70
BYV    58   74   60   69 /  80   30   70   70
MKO    60   77   61   70 /  70   30   70   70
MIO    57   75   58   67 /  80   30   70   70
F10    62   76   61   70 /  60   30   60   70
HHW    64   80   65   76 /  50   30   50   70

FORECAST ID= 14

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

SULLIVAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE LIKELY.

INSTABILITY HAS ALREADY BUILT TO IMPRESSIVE LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE RATHER STRONG AND
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NEAR JOPLIN MISSOURI STRETCHING
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  FURTHER SOUTH...A WEAKER YET PRONOUNCED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY IS RUNNING VERY NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM
FORT SMITH WESTWARD AND INTERSECTING THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THIS BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD
HOWEVER THIS GENERAL PLACEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON WHEN
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR.  ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE
EVENING.

ACCOMPANYING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE PREVIOUS RAIN EVENTS
HAVE SATURATED THE SOIL LEAVING ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS TO CONTRIBUTE
TO A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY COMPLETED PREPARATIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.
ADDITIONAL PREPARATIONS FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED.  PERSONAL DEDICATED TO MONITORING THE LATEST WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND STATEMENTS IS RECOMMENDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS SHOULD BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

A RETURN TO MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BY THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
158 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW PYRAMID CORNERS    36.77N 95.18W
04/20/2004                   CRAIG              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SHINGLES OFF ROOF, HALF OF GARAGE ROOF GONE

0914 PM     HAIL             6 NE WAGONER            36.02N 95.29W
04/20/2004  1.00 INCH        WAGONER            OK   PUBLIC

            AT WHITEHORN COVE.

0930 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N HULBERT             35.99N 95.14W
04/20/2004                   CHEROKEE           OK   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY SCHOOL OFFICIAL

0938 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E WELTY               35.62N 96.30W
04/20/2004                   OKFUSKEE           OK   PUBLIC

            EST. 70 MPH GUSTS.

1006 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NW SILOAM SPRINGS     36.26N 94.63W
04/20/2004                   DELAWARE           OK   AIRPLANE PILOT

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

BAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
236 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

ARZ020-212030-
FRANKLIN AR-
236 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN FRANKLIN

AT 236 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BRANCH...STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ALIX...CHARLESTON...BRANCH...PETER
PENDER...VESTA...MEG...DENNING...CECIL AND ALTUS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
253 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-220200-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-SEBASTIAN AR-
WASHINGTON AR-
253 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 99 IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR ALL OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TAKE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES TO MAKE SURE
YOU AND YOUR FAMILY ARE SAFE DURING THE EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER.

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
LOWEST FLOOR POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM OUTSIDE WALLS AND WINDOWS.
BASEMENTS AND STORM CELLARS OFFER THE BEST PROTECTION. IN PUBLIC
BUILDINGS AVOID LARGE ROOMS SUCH AS AUDITORIUMS...THEATERS...
CAFETERIAS...AND GYMNASIUMS. MOBILE HOMES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR
NEARBY...MORE SUBSTANTIAL STRUCTURES. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE
HOME...NOW IS THE TIME TO SELECT WHERE YOU WOULD GO IF A TORNADO
THREATENS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 PM     HAIL             10 WNW RAIFORD          35.32N 95.95W
04/20/2004  0.88 INCH        MCINTOSH           OK   PUBLIC

1024 PM     HAIL             7 NW RAIFORD            35.34N 95.87W
04/20/2004  0.88 INCH        MCINTOSH           OK   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             2 S OZARK               35.46N 93.83W
04/21/2004  0.88 INCH        FRANKLIN           AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

GW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
341 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HAIL             MULDROW                 35.41N 94.60W
04/21/2004  0.75 INCH        SEQUOYAH           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIMW SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

GW