Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
355 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

INITIAL SHORTWAVE HAS CLEARED THE AREA BUT SECONDARY WAVE IS
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY BEING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIMIT THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE
MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN FALL A BIT
TODAY SO MAXIMUMS WILL BE NEAR THE CURRENT READINGS.

RAIN WILL END FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
MAY OCCUR IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE 30S. CLEARING WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS CLOUDS
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. RAIN MAY ONCE AGAIN SPREAD UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO ADDED POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER EVERYWHERE TO PREVENT A
FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE FURTHER WEST IN CLOSING OFF A STRONG
UPPER LOW TUESDAY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT IF THE
UPPER SYSTEM CLOSES OFF ANY FURTHER WEST...THE POSSIBILITY WILL
EXIST FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY
TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF A FREEZE
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

LOWERED MAXIMUMS TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
WESTWARD LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AGAIN APPROACHING FREEZING.

A RAPID WARMUP IS STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND ONCE
AGAIN UPPED TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELDS BOTH SUPPORT MAXIMUMS NEARING 80 THURSDAY WITH EVEN
WARMER READINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. WILL NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY JUST
YET BUT IT IS THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN WE BEGIN TO SEE 80S QUITE
REGULARLY SO IT MAY WELL END UP SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT WENT
A BIT COOLER TODAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    51   38   57   37 / 100   40   10   10
FSM    57   46   58   41 /  90   40   20   20
MLC    56   42   58   40 /  80   30   20   30
BVO    49   34   56   34 / 100   30   10   10
FYV    51   41   55   34 / 100   50   10   10
BYV    51   40   55   34 / 100   50   10   10
MKO    54   40   57   39 / 100   50   20   20
MIO    50   34   55   36 / 100   40   10   10
F10    54   40   58   39 /  90   40   20   20
HHW    59   46   58   42 /  70   20   30   40

FORECAST ID= 05

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WHILE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PUSHES SOUTH LATER
TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AS MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REMAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZE IN
SOME AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA/SEVERE CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
404 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

OKZ075-076-101000-
LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-
404 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     LE FLORE AND LATIMER

AT 404 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTH OF BENGAL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BENGAL...RED OAK...HODGEN...
SUMMERFIELD...HEAVENER...FANSHAWE...HOWE AND WISTER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
727 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

OKZ070-071-073-074-101330-
HASKELL OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
727 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 830 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN MUSKOGEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN MCINTOSH...HASKELL AND EASTERN PITTSBURG

AT 727 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF ONAPA TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ENTERPRISE TO BLOCKER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.