Severe Thunderstorm Warning 375, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
930 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

UPPER LOW NEAR KSWO THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE
ELEVATED WITH TIME...BUT STILL A WELL DEFINED LINE EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY TO DELAWARE CO...AND THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A
MINIMAL THREAT OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
HAVE UPDATED TO DROP POPS OUT BEHIND THIS LINE OF STORMS...WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER UPDATE WITH EXPIRATION OF WW877 AT 10 PM.

ARE OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT THE
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES MUCH OF TONIGHT AND HAVE UPPED POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. OTHERWISE PRECIP WILL END FROM THE
EAST AND EXIT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THU MORNING.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BEGINNING TO USHER IN COLDER AIR. TEMPS WILL
BEGIN TO FALL AS MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS SETTLES IN...SOME
LOCATIONS LIKELY WILL SEE THU HIGH AT MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST ID = 14

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
750 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
750 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL 10
PM CST THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND
               WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AFTER 10 PM IN
               WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE THE
AIRMASS IS STILL MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME.

AT 730 PM...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED WEST OF A
LINE FROM BARTLESVILLE TO TULSA TO OKEMA.

ALSO AT 730 PM...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY
75 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE
AIRMASS OVER THAT AREA OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE STABLE AND LESS ABLE TO SUPPORT SEVERE
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS STILL ADVISED AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTHEAST  AND EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  SPOTTERS IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVITATION LATER
THIS EVENING.  SPOTTERS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ALERT...ALTHOUGH ACTIVATION DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
855 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

OKZ062-110330-
MAYES OK-
855 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 930 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MAYES

AT 855 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES EAST OF PRYOR TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MURPHY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...MURPHY...LOCUST
GROVE...ROSE...SALINA...SPAVINAW...STRANG...PENSACOLA AND LANGLEY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

OKZ070-110345-
MUSKOGEE OK-
902 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     MUSKOGEE

AT 902 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES EAST OF FORT GIBSON TO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF KEEFETON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PUMPKIN CENTER...KEEFETON...
PORUM...WARNER...BRAGGS...FORT GIBSON AND WEBBERS FALLS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
909 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

OKZ063-110400-
DELAWARE OK-
909 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     DELAWARE

AT 909 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF DISNEY TO 7 MILES WEST OF
LEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...JAY...LEACH...TWIN
OAKS...KANSAS...COLCORD...CHLOETA...ZENA...CLEORA...GROVE...BERNICE
AND DISNEY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
916 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

OKZ074-075-110415-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
916 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1015 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL AND LATIMER

AT 916 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF WHITEFIELD TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HIGGINS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...MCCURTAIN...VETERANS COLONY...
STIGLER...LEQUIRE...LEWISVILLE...KINTA...MC
CURTAIN...ENTERPRISE...WHITEFIELD...KEOTA...KANIMA...WILBURTON...
YANUSH...HIGGINS...BENGAL...PANOLA AND RED OAK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
941 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

OKZ058-110430-
OTTAWA OK-
941 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1030 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OTTAWA

AT 941 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM AFTON TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIRLAND...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS INCLUDE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...AFTON...FAIRLAND...NARCISSA...
WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...PEORIA...QUAPAW...CARDIN AND PICHER.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
952 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

OKZ076-110445-
LE FLORE OK-
952 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1045 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     LE FLORE

AT 952 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILTON TO 15 MILES WEST OF
WHITESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. MUCH OF LE FLORE COUNTY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.