Severe Thunderstorm Warning 373, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
245 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

WELL-DEFINED NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM SEEN SPINNING OVER FAR
NWRN OK PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. ATTENDANT SFC LOW ANALYZED OVER NWRN
OK AT 20Z...WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH WRN OK INTO WRN TX.
COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER THE LOW...WITH BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
CNTRL KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

LEAD NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS OFF TO THE E AND
SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW CENTER...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO TRACK NEARLY DUE E...WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE NEAR
THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND EVENTUALLY SWD ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY AS
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SPREADS E.

INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN RESPONSE TO COOLING
MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO WRN AR
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...WITH BULK OF ACTIVITY MOVING INTO CNTRL/ERN AR
TOWARD SUNRISE.

COULD SEE SOME MIDNIGHT HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER A LARGE PART OF NE
OK...WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION/CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. PRETTY RAW
DAY IN STORE FOR TOMORROW.

CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY CLEAR EARLY FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
NRN COUNTIES)...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN A GOOD 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. COULD SEE ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE OVER NE OK/NW AR
SATURDAY MORNING. PARTS OF THIS AREA EXPERIENCED A LIGHT FREEZE ON
THE 5TH...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING AS THE LAST LIGHT FREEZE WAS RATHER SPOTTY.

EXTENDED...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW...AND HOW
QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS.

06Z GFS HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE ERN PACIFIC TROF JUST OFF
THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST AT 00Z WED...AND IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...SPEED OF SWRN U.S. UPPER SYSTEM
EJECTING INTO THE SRN PLAINS IS ABOUT THE SAME BETWEEN THE 00Z AND
06Z GFS RUNS (ALTHOUGH 06Z IS DEEPER MORE CLOSED OFF THAN 00Z
RUN)...WHILE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO OFFER THE SLOWEST SOLUTION.
MEANWHILE...LATEST 12Z GFS HAS COME IN MUCH FASTER...BRINGING SYSTEM
INTO OK BY 00Z WED...ABOUT 12 HOURS QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS RUN.

GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS (AND A WIDE SPREAD IN GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS)...WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION PER
THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. MAY BACK OFF ON POPS SOME FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS OUT.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TUL    48   48   34   48 / 100   10    5    0
FSM    55   55   41   53 /  90   20    5    0
MLC    52   52   37   50 /  90   10    5    0
BVO    47   47   31   47 /  90   10    5    0
FYV    53   53   35   48 /  90   30    5    0
BYV    53   54   34   47 / 100   50    5    0
MKO    52   52   38   50 /  90   20    5    0
MIO    47   47   32   49 / 100   40    5    0
F10    50   50   37   50 /  90   10    5    0
HHW    55   60   40   52 /  80   10    5    0

FORECAST ID = 18

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
750 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
750 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA UNTIL 10
PM CST THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND
               WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AFTER 10 PM IN
               WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE THE
AIRMASS IS STILL MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME.

AT 730 PM...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED WEST OF A
LINE FROM BARTLESVILLE TO TULSA TO OKEMA.

ALSO AT 730 PM...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY
75 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE
AIRMASS OVER THAT AREA OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE STABLE AND LESS ABLE TO SUPPORT SEVERE
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS STILL ADVISED AT THIS TIME OVER SOUTHEAST  AND EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  SPOTTERS IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVITATION LATER
THIS EVENING.  SPOTTERS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ALERT...ALTHOUGH ACTIVATION DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

OKZ049-054>056-059>061-064>067-070-071-073>075-110400-
CREEK OK-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON OK-
353 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 877 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
CREEK...HASKELL...LATIMER...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...
OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...OSAGE...PAWNEE...PITTSBURG...PUSHMATAHA
...ROGERS...TULSA...WAGONER AND WASHINGTON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
703 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

OKZ065-066-110130-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
703 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 730 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

AT 703 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF OKFUSKEE TO CASTLE TO 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEARDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...WILSON...
OKEMAH...BEARDEN...CLEARVIEW...PHAROAH...CASTLE...MASON...OKFUSKEE...
WELTY AND HENRYETTA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
724 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

OKZ066-110215-
OKMULGEE OK-
724 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OKMULGEE

AT 724 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF BEGGS TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WILSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...WILSON...OKMULGEE...SCHULTER...
MORRIS...PRESTON...BEGGS...BALD HILL AND HECTORVILLE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
740 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

OKZ060-067-110215-
TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
740 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     TULSA AND WAGONER

AT 740 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES EAST OF GLENPOOL TO BIXBY TO 6 MILES EAST
OF LIBERTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TULSA...LIBERTY...LEONARD...
BIXBY...JENKS...GLENPOOL...BROKEN ARROW AND ONETA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.