Severe Thunderstorm Warning 334, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
317 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY FROM ABOUT BARTLESVILLE TO MIAMI
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING A STRONG COLD POOL. AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF
STORMS...TEMPS IN LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN MID 70S YIELDING
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CAPES OF 5000 J/KG THROUGH MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST ARK. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE UNABATED AS 18Z SGF RAOB INDICATED VIRTUALLY NO CAP IN
PLACE. LARGE HAIL THREAT NOT TOO GREAT IN SPITE OF POTENTIALLY VERY
STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT SUPPORTING INCREASING
WIND THREAT. POPS FOR EVENING PERIOD WILL BE LAST MINUTE DECISION...
BUT WILL HAVE RIBBON OF HIGH POPS EXTENDING AHEAD OF LINE. THESE
STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT NOT BEFORE
IMPACTING MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF HWY 75.

LATER TONIGHT WILL NEED TO WATCH ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING
OVER KANSAS WHICH MAY MAKE A RUN TOWARD NE OKLAHOMA TOWARD MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING. WILL HANG ON TO LOW POPS NORTH OF TULSA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING.

EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE WILL
KEEP SOME CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS FLOW
AROUND IT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO MAINLY SE
OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS. THIS WILL KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPS
SOMEWHAT AS WELL.

SUMMER APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DEMISE OF
EASTERLY WAVE AND MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. GFS DOES TRY TO
RETROGRADE UPPER BY ABOUT THURSDAY...AND IF THIS OCCURS WE COULD
SLIP RIGHT BACK INTO THE PATTERN OF NOCTURNAL MCS/S. FOR THE TIME
BEING HAVE STAYED THE COURSE OF HOT AND DUSTY FORECAST THROUGH THU.

FORECAST ID= 14

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
240 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
240 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THESE STORM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AS THEY MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH INTO AN AREA OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR. THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT MOST OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

WHILE SEVERE WINDS ARE THE BIGGEST THREAT...LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING OR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  IF A COMPLEX DOES
DEVELOP IN WOULD THEN MOVE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IS
REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.  OTHERWISE...THE MAIN TREND OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
135 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-OKZ056>058-061>063-067>070-090000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-
MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-OTTAWA OK-ROGERS OK-
WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON AR-
135 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 591 IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

ADAIR...CHEROKEE...CRAIG...DELAWARE...MAYES...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...
OTTAWA...ROGERS AND WAGONER.

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

BENTON...CARROLL...WASHINGTON AND MADISON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY 300 PM. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO 65
MPH.  IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES EXPECTED...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
213 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

OKZ054>058-082015-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
213 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NOWATA...OTTAWA AND CRAIG

AT 213 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BIGHEART TO 4 MILES EAST OF
NOWATA TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF COMMERCE...STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...DEWEY...COPAN...NEW
ALLUWE...NOWATA...DELAWARE...LENAPAH...WATOVA...BIGHEART...HULAH...
BARTLESVILLE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...NARCISSA...OTTAWA...QUAPAW...
CARDIN...PICHER...CENTRALIA...HOLLOW...PYRAMID CORNERS...
BLUEJACKET...CENTRAILIA AND WELCH.

A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NOWATA...OTTAWA AND
CRAIG COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 315 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.