Severe Thunderstorm Warning 330, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1055 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

STORMS IN KANSAS MAY PROPAGATE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  THEY FORMED ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD BE WEAKENING BUT A MCV FROM ACTIVITY THAT WAS IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LAST EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM GOING.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE POPS FOR THE AREA OF CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON.  WILL ALSO UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND
ASSOCIATED GRAPHICS TO INCLUDE SOME RISK OF SEVERE.  THE STORMS ARE
LIKELY ELEVATED NOW...BUT MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED WITH TIME.  GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE JUICY.

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ABBAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1108 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1108 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
LATE THIS MORNING STORMS WERE OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  THE
STORMS WERE EVEVATED AND HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ON THE
NOSE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET.  THERE IS SOME CHANCE THE
STORMS WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED AND ORGANIZE.  THESE STORMS WOULD
THEN HAVE A CHANCE OF PROPAGATING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SHOULD THE STORMS BECOME SURFACE
BASED THEY WOULD TAP A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND COULD BECOME
SEVERE.  AT THIS TIME THE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
LONGER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING OR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  IF A COMPLEX DOES
DEVELOP IN WOULD THEN MOVE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.  OTHERWISE...THE MAIN TREND OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
135 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-OKZ056>058-061>063-067>070-090000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-
MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-OTTAWA OK-ROGERS OK-
WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON AR-
135 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 591 IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

ADAIR...CHEROKEE...CRAIG...DELAWARE...MAYES...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...
OTTAWA...ROGERS AND WAGONER.

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

BENTON...CARROLL...WASHINGTON AND MADISON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY 300 PM. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO 65
MPH.  IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES EXPECTED...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
213 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

OKZ054>058-082015-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
213 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NOWATA...OTTAWA AND CRAIG

AT 213 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BIGHEART TO 4 MILES EAST OF
NOWATA TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF COMMERCE...STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...DEWEY...COPAN...NEW
ALLUWE...NOWATA...DELAWARE...LENAPAH...WATOVA...BIGHEART...HULAH...
BARTLESVILLE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...NARCISSA...OTTAWA...QUAPAW...
CARDIN...PICHER...CENTRALIA...HOLLOW...PYRAMID CORNERS...
BLUEJACKET...CENTRAILIA AND WELCH.

A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NOWATA...OTTAWA AND
CRAIG COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 315 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.