Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
825 PM CST WED MAR 17 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO THRIVE IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS AND WINDS
TO 60 MILES AN HOUR HAVE BEEN REPORTED...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
ROTATION. MOST OF THE ACTION HAS BEEN BETWEEN INTERSTATE 40 AND
HIGHWAY 412...WHILE WEST OF OKLAHOMA STATE HIGHWAY 75.  THIS AREA IS
THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHER CAPE (NEAR 1000)...AXIS LOCATED IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND HIGHER HELICITY (0-3KM SR)...GREATER THAN 400
WITH MAX AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY.

LARGE HAIL MAY BE COUPLED WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES AN
HOUR.  HIGH WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WHERE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE RELATIVELY DRY.

FORECAST ID= 21

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
250 PM CST WED MAR 17 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181200-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

A MOSTLY SUNNY MILD AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 2-3 THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND WILL
INCREASE TO OVER 40 MILES AN HOUR ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THESE STRONGER WINDS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER 8 PM AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG WITH ELEVATED LIFTED INDICES OF
AROUND -6 ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT. THUS LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE APPEARS LIKELY WITH
THE STORMS.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SO STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE IN QUESTION IN THIS
AREA. HOWEVER...IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...IT
WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD END BY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
506 PM CST WED MAR 17 2004

ARZ001>002-010>011-019>020-029-OKZ054>057-059>076-180500-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-SEBASTIAN AR-
WASHINGTON AR-ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-CRAIG OK-CREEK OK-DELAWARE
OK-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-MCINTOSH OK-MAYES OK-MUSKOGEE
OK-NOWATA OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG
OK-ROGERS OK-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON OK-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28
UNTIL 1100 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
BENTON              CARROLL            CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN            MADISON            SEBASTIAN
WASHINGTON

IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...
ADAIR               CHEROKEE           CRAIG
CREEK               DELAWARE           HASKELL
LATIMER             LE FLORE           MCINTOSH
MAYES               MUSKOGEE           NOWATA
OKFUSKEE            OKMULGEE           OSAGE
PAWNEE              PITTSBURG          ROGERS
SEQUOYAH            TULSA              WAGONER
WASHINGTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
605 PM CST WED MAR 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             5 S TULSA               36.06N 95.92W
03/17/2004  0.88 INCH        TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0520 PM     HAIL             JENKS                   36.00N 95.97W
03/17/2004  0.88 INCH        TULSA              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CST WED MAR 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             1 NW ONETA              36.03N 95.73W
03/17/2004  2.00 INCH        WAGONER            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT HIGHWAY 51 AND THE CREEK TURNPIKE

&&

GM