Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1130 AM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM JAY TO TULSA TO BRISTOW
AND THEN NORTHWEST TO STILLWATER. LINE OF CUMULUS SOUTH OF THE
OFFICE HERE DEPICTS THE BOUNDARY QUITE WELL. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
RESIDES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT VERY WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS PRESENT TO THE SOUTH.

ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
BUT THESE HAVE BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME AND WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
OF MORE CONCERN IS THE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. IT APPEARS THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS
CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANY STORMS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE A GOOD BET TO BE SEVERE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY.

A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. THE COMPLEX WILL THEN TRACK
EAST SOUTHEAST AND MAY CLIP PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

RAISED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS AND ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES SOME BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS
SOME FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

UPDATE COMING SHORTLY.

FORECAST ID= 05

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO OSAGE AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT 1 PM. THIS LINE OF SEVERE STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AND PERHAPS EVEN INTENSIFY
FURTHER AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF OVER 70 MILES AN HOUR
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE WILL BE COMMON WITH THESE
STORMS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR SOUTHWEST OF A
PAWHUSKA TO TULSA TO FORT SMITH LINE.

FURTHER TO THE EAST AND NORTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR FAYETTEVILLE TO TULSA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MILES AN HOUR BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

THE WEATHER WILL QUIET DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS BY THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THEY COULD AFFECT FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY...WITH A GENERAL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OCCASIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
258 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

OKZ049-053-030000-
CHOCTAW OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
258 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 380 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

CHOCTAW                PUSHMATAHA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
313 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NE TULSA              36.13N 95.92W
06/02/2004                   TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            BUILDING AT TULSA INTL AIRPORT LOST ROOF...REPORTED AS
            THE CONCORDE BUILDING

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
06/02/2004                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN NEAR DOWNTOWN AREA...SOME ROOFS
            REPORTED OFF...ADAMS MARK HOTEL HAS HAD WINDOWS KNOCKED
            OUT.

0245 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 SE TULSA             36.03N 95.80W
06/02/2004  60 MPH           TULSA              OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORTED AT 81ST STREET AND HWY 169.

&&

GM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
316 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE BRISTOW            35.79N 96.34W
06/02/2004  60 MPH           CREEK              OK   MESONET

&&

GM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
319 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     TSTM WND GST     BEGGS                   35.74N 96.07W
06/02/2004  83 MPH           OKMULGEE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TV CHASER MEASURED SEVERAL WIND GUSTS AT AND ABOVE 80
            MPH. A GUSTNADO WAS REPORTED IN THIS AREA AS WELL ALONG
            THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS OUTFLOW.

&&

GM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
321 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             PANAMA                  35.17N 94.67W
06/02/2004  2.50 INCH        LE FLORE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
329 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTPORT                36.22N 96.32W
06/02/2004                   PAWNEE             OK   PUBLIC

            TREES UPROOTED IN TOWN.

&&

GM