Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1130 AM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM JAY TO TULSA TO BRISTOW
AND THEN NORTHWEST TO STILLWATER. LINE OF CUMULUS SOUTH OF THE
OFFICE HERE DEPICTS THE BOUNDARY QUITE WELL. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
RESIDES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BUT VERY WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS PRESENT TO THE SOUTH.

ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
BUT THESE HAVE BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME AND WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
OF MORE CONCERN IS THE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. IT APPEARS THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS
CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANY STORMS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE A GOOD BET TO BE SEVERE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY.

A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. THE COMPLEX WILL THEN TRACK
EAST SOUTHEAST AND MAY CLIP PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

RAISED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN ALL AREAS AND ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES SOME BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS
SOME FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

UPDATE COMING SHORTLY.

FORECAST ID= 05

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO OSAGE AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT 1 PM. THIS LINE OF SEVERE STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AND PERHAPS EVEN INTENSIFY
FURTHER AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF OVER 70 MILES AN HOUR
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE WILL BE COMMON WITH THESE
STORMS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR SOUTHWEST OF A
PAWHUSKA TO TULSA TO FORT SMITH LINE.

FURTHER TO THE EAST AND NORTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR FAYETTEVILLE TO TULSA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MILES AN HOUR BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

THE WEATHER WILL QUIET DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS BY THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THEY COULD AFFECT FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY...WITH A GENERAL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OCCASIONAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-OKZ054>072-022200-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CRAIG OK-CRAWFORD AR-
CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-
MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-
PAWNEE OK-ROGERS OK-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON OK-
WASHINGTON AR-
1254 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 378 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

ADAIR              CHEROKEE             CRAIG
CREEK              DELAWARE             MAYES
MCINTOSH           MUSKOGEE             NOWATA
OKFUSKEE           OKMULGEE             OSAGE
OTTAWA             PAWNEE               ROGERS
SEQUOYAH           TULSA                WAGONER
WASHINGTON

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

BENTON             CARROLL              CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN           MADISON              WASHINGTON