Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
330 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

DISC...
A LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW PRODUCING PWA VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. UPPER FLOW PUSHING +TSRA
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO TRAINING ECHOES
FOR PLACES THAT ALREADY HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE
OF INCHES PRECIP.  ALL THIS YIELDS FLOOD WATCH
TONIGHT...NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FOUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF ARKANSAS..WHERE
HEAVY RAIN YET TO HIT.   FRONT LIKELY VICINITY
OF SOUTHEAST FRINGE CWA BY DAYLIGHT FRIDAY AND
RISK OF SHRA BEHIND FRONT FOR MORNING HOURS. A
CHILLY DAY..TEMPS ONLY IN 60S EXCEPT FAR SOUTH.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND
WARMUP ON RETURN FLOW.

MONDAY...THROUGH THURSDAY

GFSLR AND ECMWF IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON LARGER
SCALE PATTERN.  CONFLICT ARISES ON POSITION OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THE SMALLER SCALE. GFSLR
VALID 12Z TUE PARKS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SW / NE
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE ECMWF POSITION WELL
TO THE NORTH. CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL LEANS MORE
GFS DIRECTION...SO WILL INCLUDE CHANCE THUNDER
TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOCALES. MIDWEEK ECMWF
/ GFS PLACES OUR REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WHEN
UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE VICINITY NORTHERN
CA/ID/OR/NV. THUS...TRENDED WARMER THAN NORM.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    55   66   48   78 /  80   20   10    5
FSM    62   68   52   78 / 100   50   10   10
MLC    56   66   50   78 /  80   30    5    5
BVO    51   67   44   74 /  80   10    5    5
FYV    57   63   47   74 / 100   50   10   10
BYV    57   63   47   73 / 100   50   10   10
MKO    56   66   48   76 /  90   30   10   10
MIO    52   66   45   75 /  90   20   10    5
F10    54   65   49   76 /  80   20   10    5
HHW    65   72   56   79 /  80   30   10   10

FORECAST ID= 21

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 330 PM CDT THURSDAY UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONES ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 330 PM CDT THURSDAY UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR ZONES OKZ054>058...OKZ061>063.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
120 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-132137-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
120 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
   UNTIL 500 PM...

VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME SEVERE STORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
...EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL ALSO
SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY. HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES AS WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT
IN AN OVERALL SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES
WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL THEN SHIFT FURTHER EAST. LARGE
HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
132 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

OKZ055-056-131930-
NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
132 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WASHINGTON AND NOWATA

AT 132 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTH OF DEWEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...DEWEY...COPAN...NOWATA...
DELAWARE...LENAPAH AND WANN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
144 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

OKZ064-131930-
CREEK OK-
144 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CREEK

AT 144 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
NORTH OF DEPEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BRISTOW...DEPEW...SHAMROCK...
KELLYVILLE AND SAPULPA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
158 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HAIL             VINITA                  36.64N 95.15W
05/13/2004  0.75 INCH        CRAIG              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
236 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0209 PM     HAIL             2 S JAY                 36.39N 94.80W
05/13/2004  0.75 INCH        DELAWARE           OK   PARK/FOREST SRVC

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     TSTM WND GST     OWASSO                  36.27N 95.85W
05/13/2004  60 MPH           TULSA              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
335 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
05/13/2004  0.75 INCH        TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AT PINE AND US 169

&&

SFP