Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
345 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

CELL INTERACTIONS WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
TULSA COUNTY AND EXTREME EASTERN CREEK COUNTY HAS RESULTED IN
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION THAT HAS OCCASSIONALLY ORGANIZED
ENOUGH TO POSE A TORNADO THREAT.  THESE INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY
CYCLE SEVERAL TIMES...WITH SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN TULSA COUNTY.

FORECAST ID= 08

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-132137-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL AID IN
INITIATING STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT. STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR TORNADOS. HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS...ALONG WITH TRAINING OF STORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...APPEARS TO BE IN AN AREA SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM PAWNEE...TO PITTSBURG...TO CHOCTAW COUNTIES.

BY EVENING...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THIS WILL BE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1053 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

OKZ054>076-132200-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-CRAIG OK-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-HASKELL OK-
LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
ROGERS OK-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON OK-
1053 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 198 IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT.