Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
559 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVLOP IN MOSITURE CONVERGENT AREA WITH
SEVERAL APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA.  WILL UPDATE ZONES TO GO
SCATTERED AND MENTION SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE CONVECTIVE CHANCES...THEN TEMPERATURES.

NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES AT SURFACE WITH A DIRTY WEST/SOUTHWEST H500
FLOW.  THIS CREATES A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECIP OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY FORMING FOR
SEVERAL REASONS...INCLUDING H500 SHORTWAVE/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND H850
THETA-E ADVECTION.

H850 AND H700 THETA-E INCREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE REMAINING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.  MEANWHILE...THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE H200 JET WILL BE POISED ALONG THE OK-KS BORDER DURING
THE EVENING AS A TRAILING VORT LOBE SWINGS AROUND THE BACKSIDE WITH
THE H500 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO REFORM ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

REMNANTS WILL HANG THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...AND DEPENDING ON SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING...MAY REFORM NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE WHETHER ENOUGH OF A CAP CAN GET IN PLACE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT SOME OF THE ACTIVITY.

WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT IN THE AREA AND WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT...
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS WEDNESDAY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DRYING OCCURS THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.  THE ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
GFS/DGEX/UKMET/NOGAPS  WITH THE CANADIAN SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HEAT INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE.  THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CENTERED AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH THE SURFACE FRONT CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE H500 TROF MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS.  WILL
HOLD HIGHS JUST ABOVE 90 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN COOL TO AROUND 80
ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE AREA.  HIGHS
SHOULD RETURN TO THE MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH GOOD SUNSHINE...
BUT ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-241000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
635 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT.  A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     HAIL             2 W RILEY               39.30N 96.87W
08/23/2004  0.75 INCH        RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             2 W RILEY               39.30N 96.87W
08/23/2004  1.00 INCH        RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
652 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             6 SSE TOPEKA            38.97N 95.64W
08/23/2004  0.88 INCH        SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
653 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     HAIL             W RILEY                 39.30N 96.83W
08/23/2004  1.75 INCH        RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
713 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TORNADO          3 S SILVER LAKE         39.06N 95.86W
08/23/2004                   SHAWNEE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
731 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
08/23/2004  0.88 INCH        SHAWNEE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 75 AND SILVER LAKE ROAD

&&

DS