Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 241621
FFSTOP
KSC045-085-087-177-241630-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1120 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR DOUGLAS...SHAWNEE...JEFFERSON AND
JACKSON COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

RAINS HAVE MOVED FROM THE AREA AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS 
ENDED. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 3957 9555 3941 9556 3941 9525 3938 9519
      3897 9519 3896 9508 3880 9506 3877 9546
      3878 9549 3887 9550 3887 9584 3889 9591
      3951 9600 3960 9561

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
420 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

MODELS ADVERTISING STORMY PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY NOT TOTALLY LETTING UP UNTIL MAIN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. IN THE SHORT TERM...CWA APPEARS
TO BE CAUGHT IN DEADLY BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL JET TO
SOUTH AND POLAR JET TO NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATING SEVERAL JET
MAXES EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...WITH CWA IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET. MEANWHILE...POLAR JET
EDGING CLOSER AND ALSO AIDING IN VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS DUE TO
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/WIND
PROFILERS CURRENTLY SHOWING ANOTHER JET MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO/TX/OK PANHANDLES AND TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN WICHITA AREA
ATTM. THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA HAVE BEEN SAGGING SOUTH AND MAY
MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING CWA TO BE
UNDER LEFT EXIT REGION OF ANOTHER JET MOVING OUT OF TROPICS...AND NO
LACK OF MOISTURE WITH 70 DEWPOINTS STREAMING INTO AREA...WILL GO
WITH 30-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MOST OF CWA AND HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
REPEAT ROUND OF STRONG CONVECTION. WILL ALSO GO WITH MENTION OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS WELL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SUBTROPICAL STREAM STILL INDICATED OVER AREA SO WILL
KEEP 20-40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND 20
PERCENT POPS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SEEM TO BE INDICATING SUBTROPICAL JET DYNAMICS TO EASE BY
THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT SHOULD
BE DRY.

BEYOND THURSDAY...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY....AND BRING
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A MARYSVILLE TO JUNCTION CITY TO
HERINGTON LINE.

&&

38

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
509 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

KSZ008>012-020-021-023-024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-251000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MARYSVILLE...
OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
509 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. VERY HEAVY RAINS...THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS EFFECTIVE FROM 3 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOODING IS ALSO
CURRENTLY OCCURRING ON SEVERAL CREEKS OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING. CHECK LOCAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD ALSO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)