Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Topeka, KS

July 5, 2004Marshall County, Nemaha County, Pottawatomie County, Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 5, 2004, 12:59 AM CDT for Marshall County, Nemaha County, Pottawatomie County, Kansas. It was in force for 31 min. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 5, 2004, 12:59 AM CDT (05:59 UTC)
Expired: Jul 5, 2004, 1:30 AM CDT
In force: 31 min
Issued by: NWS Topeka, KS
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Marshall County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 5, 1:00 AM CDT	TSTM WND GST 65	Olsburg, KS
Jul 5, 1:04 AM CDT	HAIL 0.75	1 W Olsburg, KS
Jul 5, 1:30 AM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Emmett, KS	POWER LINE DOWN

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 1 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 4, 11:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 486 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -310 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2387 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 10 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 67 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KTOP 050559
SVRTOP
KSC117-131-149-050630-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1259 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS
  SOUTHWESTERN NEMAHA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS
  POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 1254 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS
  WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF
  MARYSVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF OLSBURG TO 15 MILES WEST OF
  LOUISVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF
  MARYSVILLE TO 23 MILES SOUTH OF MARYSVILLE TO MANHATTAN...MOVING
  EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MARYSVILLE
  WESTMORELAND
  BLAINE
  LOUISVILLE
  FRANKFORT


STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3994 9625 3958 9604 3922 9604 3924 9610
      3919 9631 3923 9640 3922 9651 3936 9663
      3947 9664 3956 9658 3959 9667 3972 9676
      3990 9677 3990 9677

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 4, 3:35 PM CDT, 9 hours 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 4, 3:35 PM CDT, 9 hours 24 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...

LAPSE RATE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE WORKING INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE.  SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHCENTRAL NEW MEXICO IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL INTERACT WITH UNSTABLE AIR WELL TO THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND CREATE MCS LATER TONIGHT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS.

EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING...BUT WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME
TSTM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE PRIME FIREWORK DISPLAY TIME IS COMPLETE.

BY MONDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL BE NEARING THE
MISSOURI BORDER.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER IMPULSE COMING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO SET OFF MORE
TSTMS FROM NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST ON
TUESDAY...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR LATTER HALF OF WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  MAIN
SYSTEM WILL BE A LOW CENTER SWEEPING THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER THURSDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY.  THE ECMWF OPENS THE LOW AND MOVES IT FARTHER
NORTH WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND HOLDS IT CLOSER TO THE
GREAT LAKES.

THE RESULTING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
SHOULD ALLOW SHORTWAVES TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THAT WILL SAG ACROSS NEBRASKA FRIDAY AND MAY REACH NORTHEAST
KANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE OUTFLOW FROM PRECIP
AREAS.  GFS ENSEMBLE PRECIP SHOWS CHANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO
FOR SIMPLICITY AND WITH UNCERTAINTY KEPT MENTION OF TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 90 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND MAYBE SATURDAY DEPENDING FINAL
PRECIP OUTCOME.

A SAFE AND HAPPY 4TH TO ALL

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 4, 4:34 PM CDT, 8 hours 25 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED UGC COUNTIES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
434 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-051000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
434 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR NORTHCENTRAL AND
EASTCENTRAL KANSAS.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.  AFTER MIDNIGHT THERE WILL BE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF NORTHCENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EASTCENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 4, 11:52 PM CDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1152 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S JAMESTOWN           39.53N 97.86W
07/04/2004  70 MPH           CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DS

Local storm report, Jul 4, 11:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1158 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W NORWAY              39.70N 97.83W
07/04/2004  60 MPH           REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DS

Local storm report, Jul 5, 12:04 AM CDT, 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1204 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W REPUBLIC            39.92N 97.90W
07/04/2004  72 MPH           REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 4, 10:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Cloud, Dickinson, Ottawa	64 min
Jul 4, 11:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Republic	27 min
Jul 4, 11:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Clay, Cloud, Ottawa, Republic, Washington	36 min
Jul 5, 12:25 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Clay, Marshall, Pottawatomie, Riley, Washington	35 min
Jul 5, 1:29 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jackson, Pottawatomie	31 min
Jul 5, 1:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Douglas, Jefferson, Shawnee	49 min
Jul 5, 1:55 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Brown, Jackson, Nemaha	50 min
Jul 5, 4:03 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Anderson, Coffey	57 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.