Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...

LAPSE RATE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE WORKING INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE.  SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHCENTRAL NEW MEXICO IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL INTERACT WITH UNSTABLE AIR WELL TO THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND CREATE MCS LATER TONIGHT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS.

EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING...BUT WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME
TSTM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE PRIME FIREWORK DISPLAY TIME IS COMPLETE.

BY MONDAY MORNING...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL BE NEARING THE
MISSOURI BORDER.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER IMPULSE COMING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO SET OFF MORE
TSTMS FROM NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROF.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST ON
TUESDAY...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR LATTER HALF OF WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  MAIN
SYSTEM WILL BE A LOW CENTER SWEEPING THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER THURSDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY.  THE ECMWF OPENS THE LOW AND MOVES IT FARTHER
NORTH WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND HOLDS IT CLOSER TO THE
GREAT LAKES.

THE RESULTING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
SHOULD ALLOW SHORTWAVES TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THAT WILL SAG ACROSS NEBRASKA FRIDAY AND MAY REACH NORTHEAST
KANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE OUTFLOW FROM PRECIP
AREAS.  GFS ENSEMBLE PRECIP SHOWS CHANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO
FOR SIMPLICITY AND WITH UNCERTAINTY KEPT MENTION OF TSTMS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 90 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND MAYBE SATURDAY DEPENDING FINAL
PRECIP OUTCOME.

A SAFE AND HAPPY 4TH TO ALL

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED UGC COUNTIES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
434 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-051000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
434 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR NORTHCENTRAL AND
EASTCENTRAL KANSAS.  THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.  AFTER MIDNIGHT THERE WILL BE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF NORTHCENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EASTCENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)