Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...

AMOUNT OF RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT REMAINS THE MAIN
CONCERN.

STRONG UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT/DRY LINE MAKING ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL KS ATTM. DRY LINE APPEARS TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM TRIPLE POINT
NEAR TORNADIC STORM NORTH OF GREAT BEND. COLD FRONT/LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS WITHIN THE
HOUR.  STORMS DIRECTLY TO WEST OF CWA NOT LOOKING ALL THAT STRONG
WITH VILS IN THE 35-40 RANGE...BUT STILL POSE A WIND THREAT.
TORNADIC STORM NORTH OF GREAT BEND MOVING NORTHEAST SO WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR AS APPROACHES CWA. HOWEVER...AS INDICATED IN SPC
MCD...AIRMASS TORNADIC STORM IS MOVING INTO IS RELATIVELY
COOL/STABLE DUE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN/TSTMS THAT HAVE COVERED MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS SINCE MORNING. THUS MAY SEE A GRADUAL DECLINE
IN INTENSITY OF STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO CWA THIS
EVENING. OTHER CONCERN IS AMOUNT OF RAIN NEXT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BRING TO AREA. HAVE ALREADY SEEN UP TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS
FROM LAST NIGHTS AND TODAYS RAINS. ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CANT SEE DROPPING IT YET WITH NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINS COMING ACROSS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORM TOTAL FROM
RADAR SHOWS MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN TO BE FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF
ABILENE NORTHEAST THROUGH CLAY CENTER TO WASHINGTON...AND FROM
NORTHERN LYON COUNTY NORTH NORTHEAST TO HOLTON AND HIAWATHA.

LOOKS LIKE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LAG BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. ALTHOUGH THE LATE
MORNING MAY BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME
SUNSHINE LIKELY SUNDAY...SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. MOS TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 NORTHERN PART OF CWA TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTHERN CWA LOOK REASONABLE AND ACCEPTED.

BEYOND MONDAY...A FAIRLY COOL BUT DRY PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING OVER AND JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA ON MONDAY...THEN
SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH BEFORE TURNING TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS INDUCES A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM MINNESOTA SOUTH
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. THUS HAVE TRENDED DAYTIME HIGHS DOWNWARD...GOING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN IN THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY.

BEYOND THURSDAY...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AMONGST VARIOUS MODELS (E.G.
ECMWF WOULD INDICATE DRY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)IN EVOLVING
PATTERN...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IT DRY ON THROUGH SATURDAY FOR NOW.
WILL ALSO BE GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 AM FOR
BROWN...CLAY...DICKINSON...DOUGLAS...GEARY...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...
LYON...MARSHALL...MORRIS...NEMAHA...OSAGE...OTTAWA...POTTAWATOMIE...
RILEY...SHAWNEE...WABAUNSEE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
122 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-281100-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
122 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. CONSEQUENTLY...A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST
AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WITH THE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL
CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING
OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE
ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

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