Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...

AMOUNT OF RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS MAIN CONCERNS FOR
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  THEN PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEXT WEEK.

STRONG WAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF IT HAS FLARED ONE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.  EXPECT
THESE STORMS TO PUSH ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESPECIALLY PARTS OF THE CENTRAL.  MODEL UVV
PLOTS TAPER OFF SOME BY THE NOON HOUR BUT THEN PICKUP AS MAIN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  GIVEN
INSTABILITY...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
BOUNDARY...WILL MENTION THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  HIGH
TEMPS TODAY DEPEND ON IF ANY SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH FOR A TIME
THIS AFTERNOON.  GOING ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT SWING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT.
SEVERE THREAT AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
EAST.  WILL NOT GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT AND WILL LET DAY
SHIFT SEE HOW MUCH RAINFALL COMES OUT OF MORNING ROUND OF CONVECTION
6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD INDICES FOR COUNTIES AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.
LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHCENTRAL TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST
CORNER PORTIONS OF CWA.

FOR SUNDAY...FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  COULD HAVE SOME LINGER
PRECIP EAST CENTRAL EARLY IN THE AM BUT THEN MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIPPING SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THUS
KEPT MENTION OF SOME 20 PERCENT POPS.  HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S.

WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE HOW CONTINUITY GOES WITH LINGER PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  GFS MOST VIGOURES WITH CHANCES.

UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY KEEPING
COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CWA.  WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S WARMING INTO MID TO UPPER 60S WED.  EXTENDED MODELS
ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON PATTERN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
EUROPEAN MORE ACTIVE IN NORTHERN STREAM WHILE GFS DEVELOP SOUTHWEST
CUTOFF AND HINTS OF IT MOVING SLOWLY EAST.  FOR NOW PARTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
520 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-281100-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
520 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.  SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
AND SMALL CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING
OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)