Alert archive / Kansas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004

Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Topeka, KS

June 15, 2004Marshall County, Washington County, Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this flash flood warning at Jun 15, 2004, 2:33 AM CDT for Marshall County, Washington County, Kansas. It was in force for 4 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 15, 2004, 2:33 AM CDT (07:33 UTC)
Expired: Jun 15, 2004, 6:30 AM CDT
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: NWS Topeka, KS
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Marshall County, KS, Washington County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 138 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 5020 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 935 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 110 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 223 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.8
Supercell composite: 14.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS53 KTOP 150733
FFWTOP
KSC117-201-151130-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
233 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
  MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT

* AT 232 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAINS FROM 
  THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF 
  HADDAM TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF WATERVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING  
  FROM 34 MILES NORTHEAST OF CONCORDIA TO 18 MILES SOUTH OF          
  MARYSVILLE. THE STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WERE NEARLY       
  STATIONARY. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
  MARSHALL COUNTY THROUGH 5 AM. THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN...FALLING
  ON AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED...WILL RESULT IN 
  FLASH FLOODING OF ROADS AND HIGHWAYS IN LOW LYING AREAS AND        
  ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS.    

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WASHINGTON
  BARNES
  WATERVILLE
  BLUE RAPIDS
  HOLLENBERG
  OKETO
  HANOVER
  BEATTIE
  FRANKFORT
  LILLIS
  MARYSVILLE

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND...AWAY FROM RISING WATER.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER
MAY BE VERY DEEP. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE
ABANDONED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 3959 9735 3957 9627 3997 9634 3998 9734

$$

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 151054
FFSTOP
KSC117-201-151200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
553 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR WASHINGTON AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

AT 548 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW HEAVY RAINFALL. 
RAINS EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE ALREADY SATURATED THE GROUND AND CREEKS 
AND STREAM COULD QUICKLY COME OUT OF THEIR BANKS.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER
MAY BE VERY DEEP. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE
ABANDONED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jun 14, 3:17 PM CDT, 11 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 14, 3:17 PM CDT, 11 hours 16 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
317 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DETERMINING HOW HIGH TO GO WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE.

12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED UPPER LEVEL JET FROM WASHINGTON STATE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW 110KT AIRREPS. ONE
SHORTWAVE TROF ALONG THE JET WAS MOVING THROUGH MINNESOTA WITH
ANOTHER PASSING THROUGH IDAHO WITH WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN CANADA/US BORDER. MID
LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD WITH COOLER
JUST NORTH AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BEST COLD AIR AT 850MB
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SECONDARY BOUNDARY FROM
WESTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN IOWA. SURFACE OBS SHOWING OUTFLOW
ENHANCED SURFACE BOUNDARY HAD MOVED INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY 19Z WITH
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND IT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUITE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S. INSTABILITY QUITE HIGH WITH TEMPS AROUND 90...AND 18Z TOP
SOUNDING INDICATING NEAR 4000 J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY LITTLE CIN.
SHEAR NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS FORCING MECHANISM FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS FURTHER AIDING IN DEVELOPMENT...AND
BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS NEARBY. IF MANY STORMS CAN
DEVELOP...DIRECTION OF UPPER FLOW MAY BRING STORMS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...AND GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH DUE TO LACK OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING/FOCUSING MECHANISM. WILL WATCH CONVECTIVE TRENDS
FOR ANY LAST MINUTE UPDATES...BUT HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD
AT THIS POINT. FAR WESTERN WAVE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. INCREASING
WINDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE JUST OFF THE SURFACE MAY KEEP STORMS GOING
INTO THE NIGHT. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY SHOULD WASH OUT ANY
REMAINING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN CASE
ANYTHING LINGERS INTO THE MORNING AND FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES LATE. FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...PUSHING
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLOW TO STILL REMAIN NEARLY ZONAL WITH THE
THREAT OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW
TRACKING INTO THE AREA.  AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY TUESDAY...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER POPS DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT PRECIP MENTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TIME...QUITE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE WEEK/EARLY
NEXT WEEK PERIODS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THE GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...WITH AMPLIFIED 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO
ITS ENSEMBLES. FRONT TO THE SOUTH MAY TRY TO PUSH BACK NORTH AS
REINFORCING COLD SHOT COMES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS
FRIDAY. FRONT COULD EASILY BECOME PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW AND NOT
STRAY FAR FROM THE AREA. WILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THIS IN MIND. MAY FINALLY BE
ENOUGH MOVEMENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE DRY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFICS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW GIVEN LOW MODEL SKILL SCORES AND MCS
EFFECTS ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. EXPECT SURFACE FRONT TO BE SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND BACKED OFF ON TEMPS FOR THE EARLY PERIODS. EXPECT A
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY.

&&

.TOP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

65

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 14, 4:02 PM CDT, 10 hours 31 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
402 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-151000-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
402 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THE STORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 15, 1:14 AM CDT, 1 hour 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
114 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BLUE RAPIDS             39.68N 96.66W
06/15/2004                   MARSHALL           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STRONG WINDS KNOCKING TREES OVER.

&&

WOLTERS

Local storm report, Jun 15, 1:44 AM CDT, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
144 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 AM     HAIL             8 W RANDOLPH            39.43N 96.91W
06/15/2004  0.88 INCH        RILEY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

WOLTERS

Local storm report, Jun 15, 2:09 AM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
209 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     HAIL             JUNCTION CITY           39.03N 96.83W
06/15/2004  1.00 INCH        GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

36

Local storm report, Jun 15, 2:10 AM CDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
210 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 AM     HAIL             JUNCTION CITY           39.03N 96.83W
06/15/2004  0.88 INCH        GEARY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

36

Local storm report, Jun 15, 2:12 AM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
212 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S JUNCTION CITY       39.00N 96.83W
06/15/2004                   GEARY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER ROADS.

&&

36

Local storm report, Jun 15, 2:27 AM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
227 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 AM     HAIL             5 SE JUNCTION CITY      38.98N 96.77W
06/15/2004  1.75 INCH        GEARY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

36

The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 14, 7:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Dickinson	63 min
Jun 14, 9:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Marshall, Nemaha	37 min
Jun 14, 9:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Washington	42 min
Jun 14, 9:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Brown, Marshall, Nemaha	49 min
Jun 14, 10:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Brown, Jackson, Nemaha	61 min
Jun 14, 11:33 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Marshall, Nemaha	3 hr
Jun 14, 11:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jackson	45 min
Jun 14, 11:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Washington	33 min
Jun 15, 12:29 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Marshall, Riley, Washington	46 min
Jun 15, 12:47 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Washington	3 hr
Jun 15, 1:06 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Geary	54 min
Jun 15, 1:14 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Marshall, Pottawatomie, Riley	61 min
Jun 15, 1:30 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Geary	3 hr
Jun 15, 2:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Geary	45 min
Jun 15, 2:48 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Riley	4 hr
Jun 15, 3:15 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Dickinson, Geary	45 min
Jun 15, 3:15 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Cloud, Republic	60 min
Jun 15, 3:50 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Lyon, Morris, Wabaunsee	55 min
Jun 15, 4:21 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Geary	3 hr
Jun 15, 4:38 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Osage, Shawnee	52 min
Jun 15, 4:52 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Morris	3 hr
Jun 15, 5:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Lyon	59 min
Jun 15, 5:06 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Wabaunsee	3 hr
Jun 15, 5:44 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Lyon	3 hr
Jun 15, 5:48 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Lyon, Morris	42 min
Jun 15, 6:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Coffey, Lyon, Osage	63 min
Jun 15, 6:28 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Marshall, Republic, Washington	3 hr
Jun 15, 8:43 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Lyon	92 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Kansas, 2004 Every flash flood warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.