Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

June 9, 2004Polk County, Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 9, 2004, 5:41 PM EDT for Polk County, Florida. It was in force for 34 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 9, 2004, 5:41 PM EDT (21:41 UTC)
Expired
Jun 9, 2004, 6:15 PM EDT
In force
34 min
Issued by
NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Polk County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 66 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2004-06-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 517 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2004-06-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -8 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
517 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-46 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
931 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
3 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
6 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

757 
WUUS52 KTBW 092141
SVRTBW
FLC105-092215-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
541 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 541 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...OVER
  AUBURNDALE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...
  AUBURNDALE.
  GIBSONIA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR HIGHER...AND
HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.


&&

LAT...LON 2801 8189 2811 8174 2828 8202 2816 8207

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 9, 1:10 PM EDT, 4 hours 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 9, 1:10 PM EDT, 4 hours 31 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
110 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH FRI.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THURS...THEN LOCATED OVER THE CENT FA BY FRI.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TRANSITION TO SSE THURS...THEN
SSW ON FRI...WHICH WILL SHIFT FOCUS OF CONVECTION PROGRESSIVELY
INLAND BY FRI. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...STILL EXPECT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO CONTINUE INCREASING...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PWS AND
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LACK OF CAP...IT COULD BE THAT CHCS FOR
STRONG/SVR CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED VS YESTERDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
40-50% POPS FOR THURS AND FRI AFTN/EARLY EVENINGS. GIVEN HIGHER
POPS AND CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE VALUES.

.LONG TERM (FRI NGT-WED)...LONG RANGE MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE
RESOLVING DETAILS...EVEN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. GFS SUGGESTS HEIGHTS
WILL RISE OVER THE PENINSULA SATURDAY AND YET THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIPS EVEN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. IF THERE IS ANY TREND THAT IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS...ITS THE SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
THIS RIDGE. BY WEDNESDAY...A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE EAST AND SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE AXIS TO REBUILD OVER CENTRAL OR
NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPER UPPER MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE WESTERN
GULF.

I REDUCED AFTERNOON POPS TO JUST 20 PERCENT OVER THE GULF EACH DAY
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS EACH NIGHT FROM SUNDAY ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WESTERLY FLOW.

IN SHORT...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLIEST
ALONG COASTAL AREAS WHERE PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION MOVES ONSHORE...
THEN BEST COVERAGE WILL BE INLAND WITH MORE RAPID PROGRESSION OF
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...NO BIG CHANGES OR CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY...ESPECIALLY BY FRI AND SAT...EXPECT BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 074 088 074 089 / 40 50 20 40
FMY 072 089 073 090 / 40 50 20 40
GIF 072 090 072 091 / 20 60 40 50
SRQ 073 087 074 088 / 40 40 20 40
BKV 069 089 070 090 / 40 50 20 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MORALES
LONG TERM...JILLSON
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 9, 5:30 AM EDT, 12 hours 11 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-091430-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
530 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY WITH A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW...COMBINING WITH THE SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...TO CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FIRST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF
HIGHLANDS AND POLK COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW OTHER
STORMS POPPING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.  THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FIRST IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AROUND FORT MYERS AND PUNTA GORDA DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND
NATURE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY ALONG
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM TODAYS STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.  ALSO...BECAUSE BOUNDARIES WILL BE
NUMEROUS...THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR A SMALL BRIEF TORNADO OR
WATERSPOUT.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT.  WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

ON THURSDAY...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AND THIS WILL FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

PRC

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 9, 3:47 PM EDT, 1 hour 54 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
347 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

FLZ060-092030-
SARASOTA-
347 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT WARM
MINERAL SPRINGS AND MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...UNTIL 430 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY
FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL
APPLIANCES. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
Special weather statement, Jun 9, 3:55 PM EDT, 1 hour 46 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
355 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

FLZ050>052-055-056-060-092115-
HARDEE-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-
355 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT
ONA...MYAKKA CITY...MYAKKA HEAD AND PARRISH...UNTIL 515 PM EDT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE TAMPA BAY
AREA BETWEEN 5 AN 6 PM.

THE LARGEST THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS CAUSING DRASTICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE WHEN A STORM
APPROACHES...HEAD FOR COVER. IF YOU CANNOT MAKE COVER
SAFELY...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF
INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES.
Special weather statement, Jun 9, 4:28 PM EDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
428 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

FLZ055-092115-
MANATEE-
428 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAKEWOOD RANCH...
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL MANATEE COUNTY...UNTIL 515 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS
AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL
RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY
WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.
Special weather statement, Jun 9, 4:58 PM EDT, 43 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
458 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

FLZ055-092115-
MANATEE-
458 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

...FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN MANATEE COUNTY...

AT 458 PM EDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD IN
BRADENTON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE STORM MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN BECOME BRIEF...SMALL...BUT DANGEROUS TORNADOES.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 2737 8233 2751 8221 2763 8241 2748 8256
Special weather statement, Jun 9, 5:06 PM EDT, 35 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
506 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

FLZ051-092145-
HILLSBOROUGH-
506 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT RUSKIN...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT
WIMAUMA...SUN CITY CENTER...RUSKIN AND APOLLO BEACH...UNTIL 545 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.
SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A
LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.
Special weather statement, Jun 9, 5:38 PM EDT, 3 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
538 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

FLZ052-092230-
POLK-
538 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAKELAND...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT LAKELAND
HIGHLANDS...CRYSTAL LAKE...AUBURNDALE AND LAKELAND...UNTIL 630 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 9, 3:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTBWLee24 min
Jun 9, 3:24 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningTBW66 min
Jun 9, 6:27 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningTBW48 min
Jun 9, 6:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTBWPasco40 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.