Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
110 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH FRI.
DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THURS...THEN LOCATED OVER THE CENT FA BY FRI.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO TRANSITION TO SSE THURS...THEN
SSW ON FRI...WHICH WILL SHIFT FOCUS OF CONVECTION PROGRESSIVELY
INLAND BY FRI. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...STILL EXPECT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO CONTINUE INCREASING...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PWS AND
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LACK OF CAP...IT COULD BE THAT CHCS FOR
STRONG/SVR CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED VS YESTERDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
40-50% POPS FOR THURS AND FRI AFTN/EARLY EVENINGS. GIVEN HIGHER
POPS AND CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE VALUES.

.LONG TERM (FRI NGT-WED)...LONG RANGE MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE
RESOLVING DETAILS...EVEN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. GFS SUGGESTS HEIGHTS
WILL RISE OVER THE PENINSULA SATURDAY AND YET THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLIPS EVEN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. IF THERE IS ANY TREND THAT IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS...ITS THE SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
THIS RIDGE. BY WEDNESDAY...A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE EAST AND SHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE AXIS TO REBUILD OVER CENTRAL OR
NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPER UPPER MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE WESTERN
GULF.

I REDUCED AFTERNOON POPS TO JUST 20 PERCENT OVER THE GULF EACH DAY
IN WESTERLY FLOW AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS EACH NIGHT FROM SUNDAY ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
WESTERLY FLOW.

IN SHORT...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLIEST
ALONG COASTAL AREAS WHERE PRE-EXISTING CONVECTION MOVES ONSHORE...
THEN BEST COVERAGE WILL BE INLAND WITH MORE RAPID PROGRESSION OF
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...NO BIG CHANGES OR CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY...ESPECIALLY BY FRI AND SAT...EXPECT BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 074 088 074 089 / 40 50 20 40
FMY 072 089 073 090 / 40 50 20 40
GIF 072 090 072 091 / 20 60 40 50
SRQ 073 087 074 088 / 40 40 20 40
BKV 069 089 070 090 / 40 50 20 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MORALES
LONG TERM...JILLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-091430-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
530 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY WITH A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW...COMBINING WITH THE SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...TO CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FIRST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF
HIGHLANDS AND POLK COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW OTHER
STORMS POPPING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.  THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FIRST IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AROUND FORT MYERS AND PUNTA GORDA DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND
NATURE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY ALONG
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM TODAYS STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.  ALSO...BECAUSE BOUNDARIES WILL BE
NUMEROUS...THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR A SMALL BRIEF TORNADO OR
WATERSPOUT.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT.  WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS
BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

ON THURSDAY...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AND THIS WILL FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

PRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
215 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

FLZ039-091900-
LEVY-
215 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT CHIEFLAND
AND BRONSON...UNTIL 300 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE
LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES
IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.