Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 93

February 5, 200414 counties in Alabama; 18 parishes in Louisiana; 20 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 5, 2004, 7:03 PM CST for 14 counties in Alabama; 18 parishes in Louisiana; 20 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 5, 2004, 7:03 PM CST (01:03 UTC)
Expired: Feb 5, 2004, 8:30 PM CST
In force: 87 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 52 counties

Bibb County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Choctaw County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Shelby County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Washington County, AL, Ascension Parish, LA, Assumption Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, Iberia Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Lafourche Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Saint Charles Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint James Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, St. Mary Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Terrebonne Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, Clarke County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Greene County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Marion County, MS, Newton County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Pike County, MS, Smith County, MS, Stone County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Wayne County, MS

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 8Feb 5, 10:55 PM CST

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 84 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1068 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -1 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 490 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 215 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 224 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.2
Supercell composite: 5.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

556 
ACUS11 KWNS 060103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060103 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-060230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CST THU FEB 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...SERN MS AND CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...

VALID 060103Z - 060230Z

STORM MODE HAS ESSENTIALLY REMAINED UNCHANGED FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE WW. FRONT HAS BECOME MORE OR LESS
STATIONARY WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME.  COLD POOLS HAVE NOT
HAD MUCH SUCCESS ADVANCING EWD INTO WARM SECTOR GIVEN THE SHEAR
ORIENTATION...THUS CELLS HAVE BEEN TRAINING.  WITHIN THE
BAND...SEVERAL SMALL BOW STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN ADVANCING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE COLD FRONT.

HIGHEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY APPEARS TO BE VCNTY WARM FRONT/
REINFORCED WEDGE ACROSS CNTRL AL IN THE KBHM/KTCL AREAS.  TSTMS
MOVING INTO THIS ZONE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST TORNADO PROBABILITIES. 
FARTHER SOUTH...SRH VALUES STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BRIEF
TORNADOES AS WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER STRONG IN THE LOW-MIDLEVELS.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVER THE ENTIRE WW.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK RIDGING APPROACHING THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE WRN GULF.  THIS
MAY DISRUPT THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  BUT...LATER TONIGHT...
STRONGER TSTMS MAY REGENERATE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT BECOME
ESTABLISHED.

UNTIL THEN...THE STRONGER TSTMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS ECNTRL MS/CNTRL
AL WILL MOVE ATOP AN INCREASING WEDGE OF STABLE AIR...LIMITING THE
SEVERE THREAT FARTHER DOWNSTREAM INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.

..RACY.. 02/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

29269255 33618788 33648574 29239044

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 5, 10:01 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bibb, Chilton, Choctaw, Clarke, Dallas, Greene and 10 more	59 min
Feb 5, 10:55 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Autauga, Bibb, Calhoun, Chilton, Choctaw, Clarke and 14 more	5 hr
Feb 6, 2:24 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Autauga, Calhoun, Chilton, Clarke, Clay, Cleburne and 9 more	96 min
Feb 6, 7:32 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barbour, Bullock, Chambers, Coffee, Covington, Crenshaw and 8 more	118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.