Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 856

May 23, 200414 counties in New York; Bennington County, Vermont

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 23, 2004, 11:02 PM EDT for 14 counties in New York; Bennington County, Vermont. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 23, 2004, 11:02 PM EDT (03:02 UTC)
Expired: May 24, 2004, 2:00 AM EDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Cayuga County, NY, Essex County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Bennington County, VT

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 3.0 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 833 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 27 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 136 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

951 
ACUS11 KWNS 240302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240302 
VTZ000-NYZ000-240600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1002 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND UPSTATE NY...WRN VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 240302Z - 240600Z

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TRAINING STRONG CONVECTION...AS WELL AS
ISOLD SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS WRN VT.

LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG WARM FRONT ORIENTED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY. LOW LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED ON REGIONAL VWP
DATA FROM PA/NY INDICATES SWLY 1KM WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 40KT
OVER THE PAST HOUR. LARGE...SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...MCS MOVING EAST
FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUELED BY VERY STRONG MOISTURE
FLUX ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT ACROSS THE WARM
FRONT. WHILE MCS GENERALLY DRIFTS EAST WITH TIME ON MEAN DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...BACKBUILDING OR REGENERATIVE CONVECTION IS QUITE
LIKELY ON THE SRN/SWRN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
COPIOUS RAIN AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCALES GIVEN PW VALUES FROM EVENING
RAOBS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.

ADDITIONALLY...A FEW CELLS NEARER THE WARM FRONT...AND ISOLD CELLS
AWAY FROM THE LARGER MASS OF CONVECTION...MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE
LEVELS GIVEN DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION.

..CARBIN.. 05/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

42987305 42967449 42977576 42877681 42767743 43007750
43447672 44007542 44387447 44347371

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 24, 10:03 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Albany, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland and 18 more	117 min
May 24, 11:00 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Albany, Bronx, Columbia, Delaware, Dutchess, Greene and 10 more	5 hr
May 24, 12:24 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Ontario and 6 more	2 hr
May 24, 12:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland and 11 more	4 hr
May 24, 3:00 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Albany, Broome, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Fulton and 16 more	90 min
May 24, 4:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Albany, Broome, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland, Delaware and 23 more	4 hr
May 24, 5:43 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Albany, Broome, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland, Delaware and 24 more	47 min
May 24, 5:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Rensselaer	5 hr
May 24, 7:25 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Albany, Broome, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland, Delaware and 24 more	95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.