Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 76

February 4, 200414 counties in Arkansas; 21 counties in Missouri; 4 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 4, 2004, 3:52 PM CST for 14 counties in Arkansas; 21 counties in Missouri; 4 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 4, 2004, 3:52 PM CST (21:52 UTC)
Expired: Feb 4, 2004, 7:45 PM CST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 39 counties

Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Izard County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Washington County, AR, Barry County, MO, Carter County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Howell County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Polk County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Wagoner County, OK

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 63 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2708 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 106 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 188 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

677 
ACUS11 KWNS 042153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042152 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-050145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CST WED FEB 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK / NRN AR / SRN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 042152Z - 050145Z

HEAVY SNOW -- WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1/HR IN SOME AREAS -- IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NERN OK...NRN AR...AND SRN MO OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION AHEAD OF
MAIN UPPER TROUGH / LOW CENTERED OVER THE ERN CO ATTM. HIGH THETA-E
AIR ADVECTING NWWD ON 30 TO 40 KT SELY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
ASCEND OVER COOL SURFACE AIRMASS...WHERE GENERALLY ELY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS MAINTAINING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION...MELTING-INDUCED COOLING WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING A FAIRLY PERSISTENT RAIN
/ SNOW LINE ACROSS ERN OK / NWRN AR.  GIVEN HEAVY ONGOING
PRECIPITATION...COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PERMIT A
CONTINUATION OF THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION.  WITH WARM ADVECTION / QG
FORCING FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA...EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS
OF HEAVY SNOW.

..GOSS.. 02/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

37649351 37779185 37539094 36389092 35759218 35739470
35749574 36919464

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 4, 10:33 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	McDonald, Newton	6 hr
Feb 4, 3:58 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche and 12 more	3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.